From the overthrow Assad regime in Syria, Russia has a problem: the question is whether the Russian army will be able to keep its naval base in the Mediterranean port of Tartus, as well as the Khmeimim airbase. Because of that Libya is becoming increasingly important for Russia in the Arab region of the Middle East and North Africa, writes Deutsche Welle (DW).
Security experts have been closely monitoring air traffic from Syria to Libya since December 2024, when Assad left Syria.
"Immediately after Assad's overthrow, numerous flights and cargo ships transferred Russian material from bases in Syria to Libya," Tarek Megerisi, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations and author of a just-published extensive study on Russia's presence in Libya, told DW.
"It was obvious that in the eyes of Moscow, Libya is a safe place in the Mediterranean region." Moscow's interests are represented there not only by official channels, but also by mercenary militias such as the former paramilitary Wagner group, which today operates under the name "African Corps".
According to a recent report by the New York think tank The Soufan Center, Russian ships have docked at the eastern Libyan naval base of Tobruk several times in the past. That base is under the control of the Libyan commander who rules large parts of the divided country: Khalifa Haftar.
Moscow's interests in Libya
In Libya, which has been torn apart by a protracted civil war, Moscow has multiple goals, Megerisi says.
Primarily, Russia strives for a military presence in the Mediterranean. So far, that presence has been mostly concentrated in Syria. In addition, she is interested in the commercialization of the natural resources there, especially energy resources. At the same time, under the pressure of Western sanctions, it is trying to find buyers for its own goods. Libya also serves as an important transit point for Russian arms exports.
The Soufan Center has a similar opinion. For example, artillery shipments go to the so-called Libyan National Army (LNA), commanded by Haftar, or they can be exported to "anti-Western forces in neighboring countries."
However, the impact on migration flows through Libya to Europe is in Russia's interest - Moscow, as is known from the eastern border of the European Union, uses this as a means of pressure on the EU.
Father and son Haftar
In the Libyan conflict, Russia has been supporting the renegade commander Haftar, the powerful man of eastern Libya, for years.
"He is still Moscow's most important partner," says Ulf Lessing, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's Sahel regional program in Mali. "It is true that the Russians have diplomatic relations with the western part of the country and with the capital Tripoli. But the focus is clearly on Haftar."
"It carries a certain risk, given that Haftar is 81 years old, and his rule could be fragile under political pressure from the US," Lessing told DW.
In this light, the role of one of Haftar's sons - Saddam Haftar, also a general - is becoming increasingly important. Spain issued an arrest warrant against him in 2024 on suspicion of arms smuggling, and in recent years he has established himself as the main Russian contact in Libya, Megerisi writes in his study.
Haftar makes a network of Libyan military bases available to Russia - and Moscow thanks him in return: "Russia used all this to (...) help Saddam Haftar to establish Libya as a hotbed for the smuggling of weapons, drugs, fuel - and people", Megerisi continues.
The system functioned in a routine pattern. For years, there have been flights from Syria to eastern Libya, Lessing told DW, most often operated by a private Syrian airline.
"Through it, migrants from Asia, for example from Pakistan and Bangladesh, arrived in eastern Libya. From there, they were loaded onto ships that then headed for Italy."
With the help of his private militia (the Tariq bin Ziyad brigade), Saddam Haftar has established a complex infrastructure for professional human smuggling, writes expert Megerisi in his study. This infrastructure can be used by transnational networks of smugglers and human traffickers - of course, for a certain fee.
"Victims are people who take great risks and endure numerous hardships in the hope of later leading a better life in Europe. Sometimes migrants have to pay up to 9.000 US dollars," Megerisi says.
Trafficking in human misery
People-smuggling follows an established pattern, Megerisi writes: Upon arrival in Libya, migrants hand over their documents to another militia, which then holds them captive until "fees" are paid. Before the boats leave for Europe, migrants are held for days or weeks - often in inhumane conditions.
"Then Saddam again gets paid to let his coast guard through the boats: $100 per migrant for 'smaller boats' (with about 300 to 550 people) or a flat fee of $80.000 for larger ships," Megerisi writes. Some refugees are transferred to western Libya: "It shows how armed Libyan groups overcome political differences for the sake of profit."
Migrants' paths to Libya are different, Megerisi writes. Africans most often come by land, while people from Asia arrive by plane. After that, most of them pass through various points of entry into eastern Libya, where they are handed over to Haftar's network.
Migration as a weapon
This is where Russian interests in relation to Europe come to the fore. "Russia uses migration as a weapon," assesses Megerisi. This was already demonstrated during the war in Syria, when Russian planes transported migrants from Damascus to Minsk, from where they were trying to reach Western Europe. This increased the pressure on the external borders of the EU. It is not certain whether these flights are still operating:
"After Assad's consolidation in power, the focus of migration was moved to the Sahel, that is, to the sub-Saharan zone. There, Russian militias contribute to even more people heading to Europe. And in this, they closely cooperate with Saddam Haftar."
Europe can most effectively combat human smuggling by offering migrants safe routes and effectively controlling arrivals, Megerisi believes. "That way people smugglers would be deprived of their profits and Europe would take control into its own hands."
