A month before the arrival of the Fire Horse (February 17), the Chinese leader showed that he was not kidding. It was officially announced that two top Chinese generals were arrested, one of whom (Zhang Yusie - pictured) was Xi's deputy in the Central Military Commission and a member of the Party's Politburo, and the other (Li Zhenli) was the chief of staff of that commission. It is alleged that they betrayed trust and expectations, encouraged corruption, caused a political problem and thus undermined the absolute leadership of the party over the army and threatened the very foundations of its rule.
Harder accusations could be found. The key sentence in the official accusation is that the deposed generals undermined the system of "supreme responsibility of the chairman of the Central Military Commission of the KP", that is, Xi Jinping himself. This could mean that they tried to decide independently or that they had their own decision-making channels, apart from the party ones. Therefore, in the Chinese system, purges are not only a fight against corruption, but also a mechanism that prevents the creation of factions.
"No one will be spared", said the head of the party, state and army, Xi Jinping, and this is not an empty threat. In the last three years, more than twenty top military figures have been replaced, including chiefs of the general staff and commanders of missile units. More than 65 very high party officials were also replaced. Everyone is accused of corruption because it is the easiest to prove, but something even more serious is hidden behind it: opposition to the internal and foreign policy direction of the Chinese leader.
BEFORE THE TRAMP
The purge at the top of the army (of the seven members of the Central Military Commission, only two remain, one of whom is Xi Jinping) is taking place ahead of the visit of US President Donald Trump to China. Analysts estimate that the moment for the announcement of the purge is not accidental and that it serves to emphasize the strong position of the Chinese leader.
When Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Beijing in April, it will not be just a diplomatic meeting, but a collision of two visions of the world. One rests on the open demonstration of force and pressure, the other on patient strengthening of power and economic expansion. The outcome of those talks will decide not just tariffs and trade, but whether the US-China rivalry will remain under control — or turn into an open global fracture.
"The dominance of the United States of America in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again," President Donald Trump said after US forces kidnapped the president of Venezuela. For him, the western part of the world is America's sphere of interest and no one is allowed to interfere there, not even European allies. The US is ready to prevent it by force of arms. Trump would have nothing against the other part of the world being left to the sphere of interest of China and, eventually, Russia, but in Beijing they are not enthusiastic about such ideas. Their foreign policy principles and strategy are different. Xi Jinping has repeatedly repeated the Chinese position: peaceful development is a permanent determination of Chinese policy, China has never started a war or occupied any part of another's territory.
EUROPEAN PATH
"China will never pose a threat to other countries, regardless of how much it grows and develops," the Chinese president said during a recent conversation with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Beijing. After Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and French President Emmanuel Macron, Starmer is the third Western leader to visit Beijing in a short space of time. This symbolically closes the long period of cold relations between China and the West. According to announcements, German Chancellor Mertz should meet with Xi already in February.
The countries that Trump is pushing away from the United States with his aggressive policy are gradually getting closer to Beijing. China says that major powers must take the lead in promoting equality, respect for rights, cooperation and independence of states. Warming relations with the European West strengthen China's position ahead of the meeting with Trump, but America still represents its biggest challenge.
After Donald Trump's visit to China, Xi Jinping will visit America at the end of the year and continue the dialogue. It will come as the leader of a country that is a world leader in the production, export and control of strategic resources, while its growth in the digital economy and global finance confirms that no force is shaping the world economy faster and more decisively than it.
During the December summit, it will become clear whether Trump and Xi can bridge the rivalry and keep it under control, or whether it will deepen and escalate into new global uncertainty.
Double fire
In Chinese astrology, each year is associated with one of the 12 zodiac animals and one of the five elements: metal, wood, water, fire or earth. These elements complement each other, but also conflict. The Chinese calendar is based on a sixty-year cycle and is one of the oldest ways of recording time. It has been used for more than 2000 years.
The Year of the Fire Horse bears the hallmark of "double fire" which symbolizes drastic changes and transformation. The Chinese associate this year with sudden political and social upheavals: conflicts, revolutions intensify, and individuals become unpredictable and rebellious. The horse symbolizes movement, speed and change, individualism and rebellion, restlessness, rejection of control. Fire means passion, explosion, conflict, war, fires. The last year of the Fire Horse was 1966. That's when the Cultural Revolution began.
What would Confucius say?
Confucius would recognize the difference between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping without much hesitation: one rules through constant conflict, the other through constant discipline. Trump builds authority on conflict, personal charisma, and mobilizing supporters, like a tribal leader who survives only by producing enemies; his power rests on perpetuating the crisis.
Xi, in contrast, appears as the Confucian father of the state. In this role, the ruler does not encourage chaos but harmony. Confucian rule does not rest on bare force, but on example, established ritual and hierarchical discipline, with a constant reminder that the greatest danger is the collapse of order.
"If the ruler is not righteous, the orders will not be obeyed," warns Confucius. In that formula lies the essence of the difference: the government is legitimate if it maintains order, even if it is repressively imposed. Trump, on the other hand, legitimizes himself with the immediate result, quick victory over his opponents, short-term financial profit and constant opening of new conflicts.
According to Confucian standards, the former builds a long order, the latter a short flame.
