After the election failure in 2012, the Republicans launched an internal review process: what went wrong. All of this is summarized in a report colloquially called an autopsy of the Republican Party. With the 2016 election result in mind, it would seem that they made the right move at the right time, although it is difficult to determine whether the text of the autopsy was a guide to the election victory or, simply, Donald Trump happened. The Democrats have the same task in 2024, the only question is whether they are capable and willing to fulfill it
Globally the most famous internal political process, the election of the President of the United States of America, was completed in an orderly, civil manner and, from the point of view of democratic procedures, successfully. Donald tramp will take the oath of office on January 20, 2025, at the traditional ceremony of the inauguration of the new president on Capitol Hill, and begin his second and last term in the White House. He will do it in front of the Congress building, which will certainly be "red" in the new mandate. Not out of shame, as it was on January 6, 2021, but because of Republican pride and a general election victory. On the eve of the election day, as well as in the greater part of the election campaign, this type of scenery and the main protagonists could be foreseen. The same as if Kamala Harris, vice president of the USA for a little more than sixty days, and the democratic, at least, House of Representatives stood in their places. Often described as "the most uncertain election in history", fueled by public opinion polls with per-millile differences between the candidates and reluctant forecasts in fear of error, they ended with an (un)expectedly convincing victory for the Republican Party. American citizens, at least those who used their active right to vote, after November 5, the institutions and the political map of the USA are painted in republican red.
REPUBLICAN RED AMERICA
Previous knowledge, impressions, prejudices and personal preferences as a result of the attitude "America has turned ideologically to the right" can now be proven with facts. And just as Elon Musk, the pinnacle of the target plane in the Republican election campaign, couldn't wait to share the dominantly "red" map of the USA with his followers on X and thus familiarize them with the results of the election, so now the global media space is also competing in the presentation of analyses. causes and consequences of such an outcome.
Donald Trump is the most visible, and the Republicans are the true winners of the 2024 election. We know everything about the charisma, media attention, special character and immeasurable influence that Donald Trump's personality had on the election result, but let's look at the following facts. At the time of this writing, the Republican Party already has a secure majority in the Senate and is marching defiantly toward an equal, simple majority in the House of Representatives. Borrowing from horse-sports betting jargon, the (governance) trifecta—the office of governor and a majority in both houses of state legislatures—is secured in as many as 23 states, as opposed to just 15 in the case of the Democratic Party. It is not too bad to mention that the Republicans will have a majority in the state legislature of vacillating Michigan, as well as Democratic Minnesota and Vermont. Only in North Carolina was the reverse result recorded: Donald Trump's victory with Democratic control of the legislature in the next term. We have been recording this trend of absolute supremacy of one party in both houses of the legislature since 2010, but this year's dominant position of the Republicans is unprecedented.
The demolition (again) of the "blue wall", the stronghold of the Democratic Party, which, among others, consists of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania is striking. How many times during the election campaign could be heard: whoever wants to become the president of the USA, must win the majority in Pennsylvania. Trump didn't just do that, he didn't even stop at the blue wall states, but capitalized on his advantage in all seven swing states this year. The impression is that even the biggest optimists in his immediate environment did not expect that. Michigan leads with a "Republican turn" of almost five percent, in Wisconsin the same phenomenon is quantified at 1,5 percent, in Arizona and Nevada close to six percent, in the others between two and three percentage points, but the patterns of voter behavior are similar in all cases: Donald Trump won the votes of suburban voters. Of course, it is not an absolute majority, but enough to surpass the result from 2020 and turn the then narrow margin of Biden's victory in his favor.
TRUMP WON DEMOGRAPHICS AGAIN
The second, in my opinion, important stage of pre-election competition was the votes of the Hispanic population. This traditionally democratic demographic group is turning to the Republican Party and Donald Trump in 2024 in double-digit percentages (around 13 percent), compared to 2020. In parts of Pennsylvania, and especially in Nevada and Arizona, it is they who contribute to Trump's convincing victory. Hardly anyone expected Trump to win as many as 12 (out of a possible 14) Texas counties with a majority Hispanic population. By comparison, in 2016 he won only five. Of course, we shouldn't forget the large population of Arab origin in Michigan, which showed its revolt against the Democratic Party and Joseph Biden in a warning, apparently unsuccessful way, during the intra-party competition of the Democrats in this state. It is evident that in large numbers on election day they either abstained, or by voting for the third candidate (which was visible in the vote for the House of Representatives) expressed their dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. Dissatisfaction with the state of the economy, despite solid macroeconomic indicators, outweighed the sentiment of rigidity when thinking about Republican immigration policy.
In their victories so far, the Democrats could express special gratitude to young voters under 30 years old. As a rule, they participated in the victories of democratic candidates with over 60 percent. This year, they barely exceeded the majority. Someone will simplistically attribute the credit to Trump's podcast with Rogan, others to Baron Trump and his influence on his father during the campaign, while everyone can agree with the assessment that young people also chose the economy and jobs as the crowning criteria when deciding. Perception, in this group of voters, has overcome the numbers of the Biden administration.
Perhaps the biggest surprise, at least according to the results of the exit polls, is the narrowing of the difference in the votes of women. They, quite expectedly, decided in large numbers to vote for Kamala Harris. However, already on November 6, we can determine that there is no question of a margin of difference exceeding 30 percent in relation to Trump's result. Here is another contribution, even though we don't have the final results, to the legitimacy of the Republican victory in the votes of the voters, not only the electors.
THE PERCEPTION OF THE ECONOMY IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN OTHER ISSUES
Managing abortion rights has been a trump card for the Democratic Party. The views that support the assertion of Vice President Harris' superiority when this issue is on the agenda are unanimous. Logically, public opinion researchers can again be "accused" of spin, bad methodology and deceiving the public. However, the world of facts is completely different. It is enough just to casually look at the results of the elections where, in addition to the candidates, the voters also expressed their support for the right to abortion. In seven out of 10 federal states, rights in this area have been extended. Moreover, in (Republican) Missouri, the absolute ban was overturned, and in Florida, support for extending rights to a six-week ban was not enough simply because the result was 57 percent, instead of the required 60 percent of the vote. Arizona and Nevada, although they give their trust to Trump, vote "democratic" regarding the right to abortion. Only North Dakota (41 percent) and Nebraska (49 percent) can be reliably said to have decided on the president and the right to abortion with the same ideological line. Nevertheless, the conclusion is that the management of the right to abortion does not decisively contribute to building the national profile of candidates. More precisely, the Americans believe that there are more important issues.
THE BRIGHT POINT OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, SENATOR RUBEN GAYEGO
In the red wave that flooded the USA "from east to west", a blue dot can be seen that gives Democrats a grain of hope. At issue is the victory in Arizona for the seat in the Senate, which, despite this, will be controlled by the Republicans with 53 to 47. The knowledge of the Democrats that they lost in Ohio, that is, that after three full terms, Sherrod Brown will leave his seat to the businessman of Colombian origin Bernie Moreno and making him the first Latino Republican in the Senate has drawn attention to this sunbelt state. It was, at the same time, the "most expensive" pre-election campaign in the competition for a seat in the Senate, the final stage of which, just like in 2022 when Vice President Vance was elected on the ballot, was marked by Trump's appearance at the rally and open support for Bernie Moreno. . John Tester in Montana shared Brown's fate. A three-term senator, he convincingly loses to Tim Sheehy, proving the point that rural America is overwhelmingly Republican.
Carey Lake, a Republican candidate for a seat in the Senate from Arizona, felt that Trump's support is not crucial even in the states where he convincingly reversed the result in the presidential race compared to 2020. Just like Ohio, Arizona will have its first Hispanic senator, with an important difference: it will be Democrat Ruben Gayego. The former Marine, a graduate of Harvard University, grew up in a working-class Chicago family and already has a built-in profile as a congressman, having served five terms in the House of Representatives. The trend of electing Democratic senators, started in 2018, defies the "redness" of Arizona and makes it resistant to black and white classifications. Despite the turnaround in Hispanic voting at the expense of Democrats, Gayego offers his party hope: This demographic is not entirely lost.
DOES IT MATTER WHO IS GUILTY??
After the election failure in 2012, the Republicans launched an internal review process: what went wrong. All of this is summarized in a report colloquially called an autopsy of the Republican Party. With the 2016 election result in mind, it would seem that they made the right move at the right time, although it is difficult to determine whether the text of the autopsy was a guide to the election victory or, simply, Donald Trump happened.
The democrats have the same task in 2024, the only question is whether they are capable and willing to fulfill it. They lacked the national profile of the candidate. The very disease that was identified in the internal autopsy from 2015. Kamala Harris conspicuously wanted discontinuity in relation to the Biden administration, but the impression is that she failed to "escape from her skin" and the role of the poorly valued vice presidential performance in the current administration. There is no doubt that (dis)satisfaction with the candidate directly affects electoral participation. Bearing in mind that in 2024, according to preliminary estimates, about 700000 fewer voters voted than in 2020, it is clear that the Democratic Party will be reassessed in that segment as well. The members of the Democratic Party were not satisfied with Biden's aspiration for re-election, and the shock therapy from the end of July and the promotion of the vice president to the head of the column did not fully bear fruit.
Gavin Newsom, the Democratic governor of California, the day after the election, called for the consolidation of the party and the fight against Trump's ideology. Some will read it as an informal candidacy for 2028. Just like Pete Buttigieg's participation in the preparations for the vice presidential debate. Or the political significance of Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania and unsuspecting vice-presidential candidate in the Kamala Harris campaign. Either way, a GOP victory in 2024 means only one thing for Democrats: let the games begin.
The author is an assistant professor of the FPN University in Belgrade
This text was created as a result of the project "Center for the Studies of the United States of the Faculty of Political Sciences - The First Twenty Years" which is implemented by the Center for the Studies of the United States of the Faculty of Political Sciences of the University of Belgrade, and is financed by the Department of Media, Culture and Education of the Embassy of the United States of America in the Republic of Serbia. The Department of Media, Culture and Education of the Embassy of the United States of America in Belgrade, nor the Government of the United States of America do not stand behind the content of this project or assume responsibility for it.
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