Specially za "Time" iz Moscow
The moment this issue of Vremena is in the hands of readers, they will know more than the signatories about the concrete results of the Russian president's visit to New York and Texas. His special Ilyushin was delayed in departure due to the latest plane disaster in New York, but the crash of the Airbus did not affect the contents of Putin's briefcase.
In the last two months, relations between Russia and the USA have experienced an unprecedented boom. Vladimir Putin was the first head of state to call George Bush not only to express his condolences but also to offer concrete help. Already after a few days, the spokesman of the Russian intelligence service (FSB) Aleksandar Zdanovich announced the exchange of intelligence data and cooperation on all fronts of the fight against terrorism. Former KGB colonel Konstantin Preobrazhensky says he never imagined he would hear such a thing. "The Soviet Union once supported, trained and financed terrorists in its struggle for spheres of influence around the world." This means that some people in the FSB will now have to give information about their former agents. It's a risky move for Putin, the intelligence service is still extremely conservative and pro-communist," says Preobraženski.
RISK THE MOVES: But that was not the only risky move... Completely ignoring the wishes and thoughts of his generals, Vladimir Putin allowed US armed forces to enter former Soviet bases in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. He also allowed overflights of Russian territory for "humanitarian and rescue purposes." According to the vice-president of the Duma's foreign policy committee, Konstantin Kozachev, "it was a gesture of great personal courage by President Putin, but also much more than that." This is a historic moment, a turning point in the relations between Russia and the USA". Kozachev refused to speculate on Washington's possible concessions: "This would be an extremely inappropriate moment, this is not the time and place for bargaining and guessing, but for cooperation." The common strategic goal of both countries is the fight against terrorism, and we have to dedicate ourselves to that." Answering the question of what else Moscow could do, Kozachev said that he personally would not have anything against President Putin allowing overflights of Russian territory for combat missions. actions.
STRATEGIC CHANGE: Well-known military analyst Pavel Felgengauer says that this is not just about the fight against the Taliban or Bin Laden: "It is about a fundamental change in Russia's foreign and defense policy, in which Moscow resolutely places itself in the role of a strategic partner of the West and the USA." Putin says that such a decision was made even before September 11, and I'm even ready to believe him." Felgenhauer adds that such a decision does not meet with general approval in Moscow: "There are very influential circles, especially within the military and the arms industry who have figured out what it's all about and aren't the least bit happy about it. They are afraid of losing influence on the internal level, as well as relations with Islamic and Arab countries, to which they are bound by very lucrative arms export contracts, for example..."
However, Vladimir Putin has so far not shown that he is afraid of confronting the generals. In this year, for the first time in the history of Russia/Soviet Union, he appointed a civilian as the Minister of Defense, and he energetically encourages the fundamental reform of the armed forces. Last month, he also announced the closure of Russian intelligence centers in Cuba and Vietnam, and he is taking an increasingly soft stance toward repealing or modifying the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Weapons Treaty, which the White House wants to repeal in order to work unhindered on the anti-missile defense system.
However, all this represents a certain risk, says Sergey Karaganov, the head of the Council for Foreign Policy and Defense: "If the Americans do not meet him, but only continue with demands and pressures, he will have to account for a few years both before the people and before political elite." At the demonstrations organized by the Communist Party of Russia on November 7 (Red October 1917, if we need to remind...) on the banners there were accusations that Putin sold his soul to the Americans. For now, these are marginal phenomena, almost fifty thousand people demonstrated across Russia that day...
DISCREET THE LIST: In Washington, and then at Bush's ranch in Texas, Putin still arrives with a discreet list... The minimum that local political circles expect is the full support of the White House for Russia's request to be admitted to the World Trade Organization (WTO) as well as the abolition of an anachronism. Namely, every year the US Congress considers whether Russia fulfills the conditions set in 1974 by the so-called Jackson-Venik law. It is about the fact that Russia (then the Soviet Union) must allow the emigration of a certain number of Jews in order to receive trade concessions. There have been no obstacles to emigration for ten years, but this law is still in force and represents a humiliation for Moscow.
But Washington's attitude towards nuclear disarmament and the ABM Treaty of 1972 will also be important. Moscow has long since come to terms with the fact that the Americans will violate the treaty in any case, but it is important for it to do so in an elegant way that will allow it to the whole thing is presented to the domestic public as another success of Russian foreign policy.