Chronicle of the announced shipwreck

The year 2024 will certainly be a year of "political records" and turnover without many precedents in history of the French Fifth Republic. She will be remembered for a record four prime ministers - Elizabeth Bourne, Gabriel Attal (the youngest prime minister), Michel Barnier (the oldest prime minister) and the newest prime minister, whose appointment is expected in the next 48 hours, according to the announcement of the French presidency. Above all, it will be remembered for the incredible political crisis into which France fell.

After this year's unprovoked dissolution of the Parliament and the total shipwreck of his group in the extraordinary parliamentary elections at the beginning of last July and the three-month summer "Olympic" break, President Macron finally appointed the temporary but politically hardened classic right-winger from among the Republicans, Michel Barnier (73), as prime minister, turning a deaf ear completely about the election results - the victory of the left-wing bloc around the New Popular Front (NFP) and the huge success of the far-right National Gathering Marine Le Pen (RN). This is how the so-called a "coalition of losers" around Macron's central grouping - now only fourth in strength in the assembly - and some fringes of increasingly harsh right-wing Republicans.

The entire left bloc immediately announced that "by default" they would demand the impeachment of the Government, thus putting this ultra-minority coalition completely at the mercy of the boundless blackmailing potential of Marine Le Pen and RN. Finally, what was announced by almost all "experts" happened on December 4, when the NFP and RN voted together and with 331 votes "for" overthrew Barni's government.

AH, THAT CONSTITUTION!

In addition to being the longest-serving, Barnier also carried the epithet of the shortest-lived prime minister in recent French political history - barely 90 days. By invoking the famous Article 49.3 of the French Constitution when adopting the proposal for the Social Security Financing Law - one of the key segments of the Budget Law for the coming year 2025 - and by completely ignoring the proposal of the left and insufficient "appreciation" of the growing budget demands of Marine Le Pen, Barnier knowingly put the survival of his government at stake, believing until the last moment that Le Pen would give in.

As a reminder, Article 49.3 of the French Constitution allows the Prime Minister to "forcefully expel" the adoption of some, mostly controversial, law, that is, to bypass the vote on the problematic law with a vote of confidence in the Government. If, after 24 hours, no political option submits a written request for the impeachment of the Government - either due to opposition to the proposed law or the (mis)use of Article 49.3 - the said law will automatically be considered adopted. However, if there is a vote of confidence in the Government, it will take place after a maximum of 48 hours, and it is interesting that the vote is only "for". Whoever is against does not vote. If the proposal for impeachment is adopted, the prime minister is obliged to submit the resignation of his government to the president within 24 hours, which means that it will pass into a "technical" mandate, after which the latter will appoint a new prime minister.

After a series of concessions, Barnier rejected Le Pen's "excessive" request to abandon the dis-indexation of pensions with inflation, which - in addition to the already severe consequences of inflation accompanied by the growing deindustrialization of France - would particularly affect pensioners, who are already among the most vulnerable sections of the population and - surprisingly - the most massive sources of votes. RN.

It is also interesting that despite the fact that the RN also submitted a request for impeachment, Le Pen caused the fall of Barnier's government by voting for the proposal of the NFP, whose text contained more than harsh words against Le Pen herself, her party and, in general, her notorious political views. The right considers her complicity with the radical left, and part of the left camp, the so-called to the "government left" - the left parties that were in power (primarily the socialists and the greens, while the communists were last in Mitterrand's first government in the early 1980s), they transfer the paper that with that move they proved their complete subordination to the radical left's aprioristic anti-contradictory attitude of the leader LFI, the boisterous Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

For the sake of anecdote, let's also mention that Elizabeth Bourne, the former prime minister of the already minority Macron government that emerged after the elections in summer 2022, in about twenty months of her term, (mis)used Article 23 of the Constitution a record 49.3 times - especially during the adoption of the extremely controversial Pension Reform Law system and the Immigration Act.

LEX SPECIALIS

Those who further darkened the already difficult French internal situation (a gaping budget deficit, an astronomical public debt of 113 percent of GDP, growing divisions along different seams of French society, etc.) called for the termination of the fiscal-financial function of the state and the scenario of an American fiscal "shutdown" ”, was refuted by the surprising tenacity of French institutions, above all the Constitution and accompanying laws.

Namely, in a situation where, for one reason or another (not to mention the collapse of the government), the budget is not adopted within the deadlines set by the law, the French legislator provided for the adoption of the so-called of the "special law", whose voting (almost automatically) ensures the functioning of the "revenue" side of the budget, while on the "expenditure" side the budget from the previous year is copied, by quarters, that is, until the adoption of the new budget. In translation, we don't have a budget yet, but taxes remain.

ERROR IN STEPS

The only such precedent occurred in October 1962, when the minority government of De Gaulle's Prime Minister Pompidou fell. Without delving into the undoubtedly interesting political and historical circumstances and context of Pompidou's impeachment, cynics say that unlike De Gaulle, Macron made a "slight misstep." Only after the fall of the Government did De Gaulle dissolve the Parliament, and then he won after the election plebiscite.

Macron first dissolved the Assembly and then experienced the impeachment of his minority government. The government fell, and the assembly remained unchanged. Because, let's recall, the same French constitution-maker banned the first subsequent possibility of dissolving the French National Assembly for one year. Therefore, the assembly will remain the same until at least July 2025.

Even worse, Macron justified his still incomprehensible and hasty decision to dissolve the Parliament, among other things, with a hunch that the then Atal government would certainly experience impeachment in the fall when the new budget was adopted. In addition to the fact that Macron's group lost more than 100 deputies in this year's special elections, Prime Minister Barnier's barely formed government fell precisely on the "unfinished" budget in every sense of the word, which predicted drastic savings in the public sector (at the expense of the proverbial education and health care), with only symbolic and above all cosmetic concessions on the side of "social" and taxes.

PARALLEL REALITY

In his address to the nation on December 5, the evening after the fall of the government, Macron, to the general disappointment, once again displayed a total denial of the obvious, which is that he lost the election and that French voters massively disapproved of his policies, the balance of which he persistently refuses to face . Moreover, he repeated that "they did not understand his decision, but that it was his responsibility". Essentially denying any responsibility for the dissolution of the Parliament, he shifted the blame for the fall of the Government to the "anti-democratic front" of the united left and the extreme right, harshly calling out the "government left" for pandering to Melanchon's radical left LFI.

In addition, implicitly admitting all his political weakness, he almost yogily confirmed that he will carry out his mandate to the end, thus answering everyone - read from the LFI and RN camps - who are increasingly calling for his resignation, should he not find himself in the extraordinary presidential elections way out of the current political impasse.

photo: ap

WHAT NEXT?

Macron also called the quarreling and irreconcilable parliamentary political options for a compromise and the creation of a "government/republican circle" that would consist of all the parties (former and current) in power, without any extremes (LFI+RN), with a clear hint to the socialists and other leftists that resist Mélenchon's "death embrace", and that republican circle would include all political options, from right-wing republicans to left-wing socialists (that is, greens and even communists, in depending on mutual tolerance). And which round, translated into parliamentary votes, greatly exceeds the absolute majority in the Parliament.

We are witnessing a new cycle of blackmail, threats and fights, but certain positive tones are also heard, primarily on the left side of the political spectrum. The Socialists were the first - followed by the Greens and, somewhat more timidly, the Communists - to show their willingness to cooperate in an effort to unblock the crisis and for the French state to continue functioning smoothly on the basis of a minimum of political compromise - and on the basis of the signed "non-aggression pact", i.e. not impeaching the Government" regardless of participation in it.

Both the left and the right threaten not to participate in the government if the prime minister is not from their camp, but both sides are ready to make certain concessions - the left refuses to repeal the Pensions Act in exchange for a delay indefinitely its application until - at a broad conference of all relevant factors - alternative ways of financing the existing system are found. The moderate left is also ready to make some concessions regarding the certainly inevitable tax increase and to look at other possibilities of stimulating the already weakened purchasing power of French citizens (in other words, less taxes in exchange for higher wages).

photo: ap

2027 AGENDA

The leaders of the left LFI Mélenchon and the extreme right RN Le Pen, excluded from this republican circle, found a "common language" in the recall of Barnier's government - each of them, from their own point of view, looking at the presidential elections in 2027, and both, moreover, wishing for Macron's resignation for its own reasons.

In addition to increasingly compromising the entire left with his attitudes and performances, the radical left Mélenchon has become France's "most repulsive political figure" (except among his followers). In addition, Mélenchon is aware that time is slowly catching up with him and that in 2027 he will be 76 years old, and without a visible successor in the ranks of the LFI, despite the undoubted political young talents.

On the other hand, after undoubted electoral and political successes, Marine Le Pen switched from the "tie strategy" (policing the membership and de-Satanizing the political views of the RN) to the RN's own "opposition strategy" by voting for the impeachment of the Government, showing that she and the RN are unreliable. partners, immature for the challenges brought by the government in such turbulent times.

She is not in a hurry either. With her eyes fixed on the year 2027, in which everyone predicts her victory in the presidential elections, Marine Le Pen threatens to drop out of politics. Namely, less than a month ago, the trial of her and 25 other persons from RN ended for the embezzlement of almost five million euros to whom the European Parliament paid "fake assistants" to RN MEPs for years, and who actually served to finance the party and the inner circle around Le Pen herself. Always prompt in seeking express and merciless justice for all, Marine Le Pen, caught with "both hands in a jam", is now shouting "political persecution". The first-instance verdict is expected next March, but in addition to five years in prison (two prison terms + three suspended) and a 300000 euro fine for Le Pen, the prosecution also requested a five-year ban on election to any public office, with immediate effect - whereby Marine Le Pen would be removed from politics for five years (regardless of any appeal filed), and her plans for the Elysée Palace might finally be adapted.

By appointing a new prime minister, Macron will have to square the circle and try to force the quarreling deputies to a minimum of compromise for the sake of a "higher goal", recalling this time the unity manifested in the renovation of the recently reopened Notre Dame Cathedral. The only question is whether this time he will show a willingness to open to the left or if he will persist on the right course and not give up his own defeated policy.

Among the potential candidates for prime minister, one of the historical figures of centrism in France is mentioned as the biggest favorite, also a former mountaineer (this time from the Pyrenees) - François Bairou (73), leader of the Modem party - with far greater political weight and reputation than the unfortunate Barnier. a man whose support in 2017 was certainly important for Macron's victory, and whose ideas of fiscal justice are much closer to the left camp, while Marine Le Pen is certainly not immune to the support given to her provided after the trial, since he himself found himself in a similar situation with his own party, from which he came out free of all guilt. To tell the truth, compared to Marine Le Pen, Bayrou was just "stealing".

Will the French MPs find a way out of the crisis in some form at a minimum compromise majority or will we see a succession of impeachment of each successive new government, remains the question to which the French are most anxious to know the answer.

Interesting parliamentary arithmetic

After this year's extraordinary parliamentary elections (for a total of 577 parliamentary seats), the schedule of mandates in the parliament looks like this:

Levice: a total of 194 mandates, i.e. the left coalition New People's Front (NFP) 184 mandates - Unconquered France (LFI) 78, the Socialist Party (PS) 69, the Greens (EELV) 28 and the Communists nine, to which we should also add 10 "independent" deputies of the left - mostly different renegades from the Socialists or LFI.

Center: a total of 166 mandates, i.e. the "Together for France" coalition around the so-called "presidential majority" 161 mandates, of which Macron's Renaissance 99, Modem 33, Horizonti 26 and UDI three, and five independents.

Right: a total of 65 mandates - 39 for the Republicans (original) and 26 for the "other right" (mainly right-wing profiled independent candidates).

Extreme right: record 143 mandates - National Gathering (RN) 125 and its allies, the renegade wing of the Republicans with former party president Eric Ciotti, 17 and one independent

And finally Regionalists with nine mandates.

The left, the center and the extreme right, three irreconcilable blocs, each of which is nowhere near a majority in the Parliament, and equally without the idea and capacity to achieve a broader compromise in cooperation with political opponents.