The main strength of the reformists lies not in the power they have won, but in the reputation and devotion that the Iranian president enjoys, especially among the youth.
There was no doubt that Iranian President Seyed Mohamad Hatami would win a second presidential term in the elections held on June 8. However, few expected that after a four-year, largely unsuccessful, struggle for reforms and liberalization of society, they would not only repeat the success of 1997, but even surpass it. More convincing than the first time when he won 20 million voters (68 percent), Mohamad Hatami won this year's presidential election by winning 21,65 million (77,88 percent) of the 28,6 million votes.
With the exception of former Labor Minister Ahmad Tavakoli and Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani, none of Khatami's nine conservative and weak opponents received more than one percent. Even in the traditional strongholds of conservatives, in the holy cities of Goma and Mashhad, he triumphed over his rivals, and the voters gave him even greater confidence in areas with minority populations (he won 87 percent of the vote in Kurdistan, and even 90 percent of the vote in Baluchistan).
This result, on the one hand, shows that the reformists' fear of low voter turnout, resigned due to the unachieved goals of the reform, was unfounded. However, despite the impressive number of votes won, when it is taken into account that the electorate has increased by 5,5 million since the last election and that it counts 42 million people (seven million have reached the lower limit of 15 years of age with which it is allowed to vote in elections ), the fact remains that there were more abstainers than four years ago (in contrast to the then turnout of 83, now 67 percent of voters went to the elections) and that Mohamad Hatami attracted only one million and half a dozen new supporters. That is why many analysts ask the question whether the president of Iran came out really strengthened after these elections and whether in the new mandate he will succeed in more effectively implementing the idea of reform that gained him such great popularity, and which is strongly opposed by conservatives, who believe that it it can threaten the achievements of the Islamic revolution and the Islamic regime.
JOBS CONTROL CLARA: Despite winning local elections in 1998, winning a landslide majority in parliament in 2000, and the presidency, Khatami's reformists have little real power in their hands. The key government institutions that are not subject to the electoral will of the citizens (the judiciary, the police, the army and the state radio-television, which has a monopoly) are under the complete control of the conservative clergy. The final decision on all matters rests with the conservative Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who appoints judges, directs the police and army, appoints the heads of the state broadcaster and elects half of the 12-member Guardian Council (the other half is also appointed by the conservative head of the judiciary). The possibility to challenge the authority of the supreme leader, who normally has a life-long mandate, in exceptional cases (inability to perform the function) is only available to the conditional religious body Expert Assembly, which elects the supreme leader and is composed exclusively of members of the conservative clergy. The Guardian Council not only approves candidates for the presidential elections, verifies deputies and gives the final say on the outcome of the elections, it also has the right to veto parliamentary decisions. This is precisely why in the past period the adoption of certain laws was successfully prevented and reform processes were blocked. There is a well-known example from August last year, when Ayatollah Khamenei himself stopped even the discussion of small changes in the draconian press law. The initial success of Mr. Hatami and the reformists in liberalizing the media, thanks to which a large number of new magazines and newspapers appeared, was almost neutralized by the banning of about forty pro-reform papers in the last year and a half, the arrest of journalists, intellectuals and close associates of the president. That is why the main strength of the reformists does not lie in the power they have won, but in the reputation and devotion that the Iranian president enjoys, especially among the youth.
Young generations make up more than half of the electorate and a large majority in the 62 million population (even 65 percent of Iran's population is under 25 years old) and they turned to Khatami four years ago precisely because of his promise to reform Iranian society, solve the economic and social crisis , to reconcile the Islamic regime and democratic principles by establishing the so-called Islamic democracy, bring more freedom in many areas of life and activity and bring the country out of its isolation. However, in the opinion of many, primarily radical reformists, not enough of what was promised has been achieved. The beginning of the opening of the country to the world is Hatami's greatest achievement from the previous mandate, while very little progress has been made in internal matters. And impatience to solve above all the economic problems, because unemployment is approaching the level of 30 percent, corruption is still a big obstacle to progress, it is stronger than ever and represents pressure both on Khatami to show greater determination and on the conservative establishment to respect the wishes of the majority.
POSSIBLE COALITION: A solution to the current stalemate could perhaps be found in dialogue and an unofficial coalition of reformists with conservatives willing to moderate their views. However, the first reactions to the outcome of the presidential elections do not indicate anything like that. Apart from the late announcement of the election results by the state radio and television, the attempts of the police (mostly in civilian clothes) to prevent the public celebration of Hatami's victory and even the arrest of those who wanted to express their enthusiasm for the success of their candidate in the streets (about thirty young people in Mashad), may be a sign that conservatives will continue to use all means in the fight with political opponents. Only the comments of certain personalities of the conservative bloc and the balanced pre-election statement and post-election congratulations of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei open the possibility for a possible future compromise. "Forget the terms winner and loser. You should join hands and support the president and help the government solve the problems in the country," Ayatollah Khamenei said on election day, congratulating Mr. Khatami on his victory and the people for "the seriousness with which he defended the Islamic system" by turning out en masse. The Ayatollah said that "the president and other state officials should cooperate and spare no effort in meeting the material and spiritual needs of the people."
After the victory, Hatami announced that he would continue with the reforms. "This victory is the victory of democracy and freedom," Hatami said and emphasized that his priorities are the establishment and consolidation of democracy, which, however, should be implemented with "patience, moderation and caution." It is the moderation and caution with which he has acted so far that, for many supporters of the reforms, is Hatami's biggest flaw, especially when they meant more than mild reactions to the conservatives' very drastic confrontations with their opponents. This, for some, excessive moderation is also an obstacle to the quick and essential changes expected by Hatami's voters. For others, they are the president's greatest qualities and a guarantee that reforms will not be followed by greater unrest, violence and conflicts. In any case, Mohamad Hatami, himself a member of the clergy, can retain such broad support only with concrete results, the realization of which still requires firmness and energy. Only with them will he be able to "face the great responsibility of repaying the debt to the nation that supported him", as he declared after the victory. He added that "the real victory is that the people want to establish a just and correct model of civil society based on religion and morality together with democracy and freedom." He announced that this time he is more ready to confront opponents in defense of the reform process with the words: "The people are determined to make the right demands and expect the government to take greater steps in fulfilling them." Freedom of speech, criticism and protests in accordance with the law are prerequisites for a faster victory."
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