Georgians come out on October 26 to vote in the parliamentary elections elections which all parties see as a turning point in the country's modern history. Tensions are high ahead of the vote and without reliable polls, the outcome of the election can only be guesswork.
The ruling Georgian Dream party has been in power since 2012 and is seeking another four-year term. She presented the vote as a choice between peace or war; the pre-election messages of that party were dominated by the argument that, if the opposition came to power, it would drag Georgia into a war against Russia, writes Radio Free Europe.
Russia vs. West
For the opposition, the vote represents a choice between the West or Russia and between democracy and authoritarianism. That narrative has been echoed by American and European officials.
The elections "will be a moment of truth and the Georgian people will have to decide which way they want to go: towards Europe or to separate from Europe," said the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security, Josep Borrell. "The future of the country is at stake."
The decline of democracy
The vote comes after an unusually tumultuous period even by the standards of Georgian politics. Georgian Dream has intensified anti-Western rhetoric and its government has passed controversial laws that it defends as a means of combating foreign influence in the country.
Among them are laws banning "LGBT propaganda" and requiring foreign-funded NGOs and media to register as "foreign agents." The introduction of this second law this spring caused great protests.
Opposition
Voting will be held under a new electoral system in which parties or coalitions must reach a threshold of five percent to enter parliament. This has motivated a number of Georgian opposition parties to cooperate to some extent and form coalitions that have a meaningful chance of passing the vote. In the end, four opposition forces emerged that are likely to have an impact:
- Unity to Save Georgia, a coalition led by the former ruling United National Movement (ENM) party formerly led by now-imprisoned ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili.
-Coalition for Change, mostly composed of people formerly associated with ENM;
-Strong Georgia, an ideologically broad coalition that tried to position itself as different from both ENM and Georgian Dream;
-For Georgia, a pariah led by Georgih Gakharia, who was prime minister in the Georgian Dream government from 2019 to 2021, but then broke with that party.
Although these four groups show some differences in their pre-election promises, they are largely united on the main priority of changing the Georgian Dream, mostly attacking the ruling party and not each other.
They all signed the "Georgian Charter" proposed by President Salome Zourabishvili, in which they agreed to allow the opposition, in the event of a victory, to form a technocratic government that would restore good relations with the West and repeal the most authoritative laws adopted by the Georgian Dream ahead of the campaign. .
Zurabishvili, whose term expires this year, was elected president as an independent candidate in 2018, but was supported by Georgian Dream. In the meantime, she distanced herself from that party.
Analysis by the American Institute for the Study of War
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that the victory of the ruling Georgian Dream party would represent "the most dangerous sequence of events for Georgia and the West", while accusations are coming from the party against unnamed Western officials that they wanted to push the country into a new war with Russia. Demonstrations are being held in Tbilisi against Russian influence, and a large Georgian Dream rally was held yesterday. In the middle of the heated atmosphere, the Ukrainian media reported that the organization of Georgian fighters in that country "Round Table of the Free Caucasus" threatened a revolution in case of victory of the ruling party.
Georgian, but world media write that in the elections, 3,5 million voters choose between closer relations with Russia, embodied in the policy of Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, and a complete turn to Euro-Atlantic integration, which is represented by President Salome Zourabishvili and the largest opposition party, the United National Movement (UNM or Natsebi ) and the Coalition for Change.
In its analysis, ISW warns that the elections present an opportunity for the Kremlin to sabotage Georgia's long-term Euro-Atlantic integration and reassert its influence over the country, citing Zarubishvili as saying they are of "existential" importance. American experts note that Georgia began that journey in 2003 with the Pink Revolution (one of the color revolutions in the style of October 5 in the FRY), and Saakashvili came to power the following year. In April 2008, with the Bucharest Declaration, NATO supported the action plan for joining the Alliance of Georgia and Ukraine, so that Georgia would attack Russian troops in South Ossetia already in August of the same year.
"The Kremlin intends to use Georgia's Russia-friendly government to advance Russia's strategic interests and Moscow's geopolitical goals to establish control over Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia." Russia has repeatedly attempted to influence the internal political landscape of neighboring states that were formerly part of the Russian Empire and/or the Soviet Union in an effort to exert influence, build a coalition of states opposing the US-led international order, and demonstrate its great power status. Post-Soviet Russian leaders have coined the term 'near abroad' to describe former Soviet states as part of an effort to assert Russia's alleged right to keep those states within its sphere of influence," the ISW analysis reads.
Although Georgia received the status of a candidate for the EU in 2023, the European Council announced in June of this year that European integration was "de facto stopped" due to anti-Western laws and a conciliatory policy towards Russia.
Advantage of the ruling party
Georgia's ruling parties traditionally have an electoral advantage in that they can get government officials and their families to vote for them. Western observers assessed that the past elections in Georgia were flawed, but legitimate.
However, the authoritarian twist on Georgian Dream and the labeling of election monitoring organizations as "foreign agents" have raised fears that there could be more direct election theft this time around.
The leaders of Georgian Dream have said that their goal is to win not only a majority, but also a constitutional majority (113 out of 150 seats), which would allow the party to govern alone. She promised a constitutional majority to strengthen anti-LGBT rights laws and ban all major opposition parties, holding them responsible for provoking the 2008 war against Russia and trying to drag the country back into war.
Given the high stakes and uncertainty surrounding the results, many worry about the possibility of unrest after the vote. Georgia will use the new electronic ballot counting system (with a backup paper copy) for the first time, and results are expected to be announced one to two hours after the polls close at 20:22 Georgian time (XNUMX:XNUMX CET).
Source: Radio Free Europe / Euronews
