December 8 is the first anniversary of the fall Syrian diktatora Bashar Assad. The Assad family ruled Syria for more than 50 years - Hafez Assad was in power since 1971, and after his death in 2000, his son Bashar took over, reports Deutsche says.
The Assads' autocratic rule led to a popular uprising in 2011 and then a brutal civil war that lasted nearly 14 years. But on December 8, 2024, a lightning offensive by the rebel militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led to the fall of the Assad regime with very little resistance.
Assad and his family fled to Russia, and in January a militia leader, Ahmed al-Shara, became Syria's interim president. What has been done in this year in Syria, and what has not been done?
Security and Stability: A 'Fragmented Landscape'
As noted in a November United Nations Security Council report, "Syria continues to struggle with a fragmented security landscape."
The capital Damascus is relatively calm, and Syria Weekly, a regular newsletter by Charles Lister of the American think tank the Middle East Institute, reports that the level of violence is declining.
However, clashes between the new Syrian government's security forces and other groups across the country, including members of minorities, the Kurds and the Druze, continue, according to the Security Council.
Armed members of the Assad regime are still present, albeit hidden, and the resurgence of the Islamic State extremist group is also a problem as it exploits security gaps.
It is clear that the new Syrian authorities do not have full control over the country, according to a recent report by the EU Asylum Agency. "Incidents of lawlessness, crime and vindictive violence have been recorded," the agency states.
Transitional justice without "central government support"
One of the main causes of continued violent incidents is the persecution of those believed to have collaborated with the former Assad regime. That's why transitional justice—the process of acknowledging crimes committed by the Assad regime, as well as other groups—is crucial, the Syrian Justice and Accountability Center (SJAC) argued in an article from September.
In May, the government established two independent commissions – one dedicated to finding thousands of Syrians who disappeared during the war, and the other for crimes committed by the Assad regime.
SJAC reported that the first commission was the most active, while the second "made less progress, possibly due to weak support from the central government."
Human Rights Watch has criticized Syria's National Commission for Transitional Justice for investigating exclusively the crimes of the Assad government, while ignoring the crimes of other groups, including – potentially – HTS and its allies.
Politics: "Too Soon" for Democracy in Syria?
At the beginning of the year, Syria held its first relatively free parliamentary elections. Due to the circumstances, the elections could not be direct - instead they were conducted through electoral colleges. El Shara remains interim president until a new constitution is adopted. Syria is currently writing a new constitution and has held a national dialogue on this and other topics.
However, serious differences remain between the interim government and other communities over the future system of governance. Critics also claim that El Shaara is consolidating power and acting increasingly autocratically.
For now, analysts are taking a "wait and see" approach.
"It is too early to talk about the democratization of Syria, but the new institutions represent a modest return to electoral politics," Patricia Karam of the Arab Center in Washington wrote in November. "These developments bring Syria to a crucial crossroads: the country can either move towards true participatory governance or slip back into authoritarianism."
Foreign military operations "inflame regional tensions"
Foreign policy is probably the area where Syria has seen the most change. Closed embassies are reopening and new politicians, including Syria's foreign minister and President El Shaar, are traveling the world.
El-Shara once collaborated with the terrorist group Al-Qaeda, was on numerous sanctions lists, and had a $10 million bounty on his head.
But in September he addressed the United Nations General Assembly, and in November he became the first Syrian leader to visit the White House since 1946.
Syrian officials have established contacts with all five permanent members of the Security Council, including Russia and China. This is seen as a sign of Syria's pragmatic foreign policy: Russia has been an ally of the Assad regime, and El-Shara and many of his associates would previously have been targeted by Russia.
Currently, Syria's biggest foreign policy problem is probably the continued incursion of Israel into Syrian territory. "Israeli military operations ... put civilians at risk, inflame regional tensions, undermine the fragile security situation and threaten the political transition," the United Nations' deputy special envoy for Syria, Najat Roshdi, said in November.
"Families return and find only ruins"
Many Syrians who fled during the war are now returning home. The latest figures show that around 2,9 million Syrians have returned – including around 1,9 million internally displaced people and more than a million returnees from abroad.
But they face serious problems. According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, "many families return to Syria to find only ruins ... people return to damaged infrastructure, destroyed schools and hospitals, and disputes over ownership of houses."
In November, the International Rescue Committee reported that “more than half of the water supply network and four out of five electrical networks were destroyed or non-functional.”
Estimates of the cost of reconstruction in Syria range between $250 billion and $400 billion, and possibly more. However, the Syrians are trying to change the situation.
Analyzes by the humanitarian organization Mercy Corps, based on satellite images of nighttime lighting, show that electricity generation is improving - although not equally in all parts of the country. In early November, the Syrian news agency SANA reported that 823 schools across the country had been renovated, while work on another 838 was underway.
Economy: material improvement "still not felt"
Many returnees still cannot find work. The civil war has devastated the country's economy. Today, about a quarter of Syrians live in extreme poverty.
However, there is also good news. A World Bank report published in July predicted that Syria's economy would likely grow by one percent in 2025.
Most of the Assad-era sanctions have been permanently or temporarily lifted, which should help the economic recovery. Additionally, financial support from countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in the form of investment agreements worth billions of dollars, could also help - although, as the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy points out, "the material impact on the daily lives of Syrians is still not felt".
