Za "Time" from Podgorica
The victory of pro-Western Montenegro over the threats coming from Moscow, the country's safe path to the EU and NATO, is how the foreign media described the ninth consecutive election won by the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists held on Sunday. Mostly without mentioning election irregularities, (non)compliance with the law, abuse of state funds, corruption...
Milo Đukanović, a political chameleon who has been in power for almost three decades, who in the meantime was both a Serbian nationalist and a Yugoslav and a fighter for independent Montenegro and a Russian partner, played the NATO card and won.
He showed and proved to the West that only with him at the head, Montenegro enters NATO and makes a departure from centuries-old friendship with Russia, sending a message that it is important for the region because of "Moscow's growing influence".
Although he survived an "attempted coup" on election day, as pro-government media call the strange arrest of the former commander of the Serbian Gendarmerie Bratislava Dikić and 19 other Serbian citizens suspected of terrorism, Đukanović will still need more effort (alchemy) to secure and form a stable the majority with which he could rule until the next elections, regularly scheduled for 2020.
With a strong pre-election machinery and considerable support from state authorities and budget funds, Đukanović managed to get slightly more than 40 percent of the vote. With a fairly certain coalition with minority parties, Croats, Albanians and Bosniaks/Muslims, that will be just enough for 41 mandates, which is necessary for a majority in the assembly. As some have commented on social networks - if someone gets a fever, the government falls.
POST-ELECTION RESISTANCE OF THE OPPOSITION: For the first time in the history of multi-party elections since 1991, the opposition unanimously decided not to recognize the election results, which further complicates the political situation in the country, which even before the elections showed no signs of a way out of the crisis that began with the vote of confidence in the government in January of this year .
The move by the opposition was not expected after a lukewarm, almost conciliatory reaction on Sunday night after the polls closed.
Now the opposition is working out several possible scenarios in order for such a decision, apart from a political message, to gain some kind of legal weight.
"Only the unique action of the opposition can now be the answer to what has been happening in the country for months," Marko Milačić, a publicist and activist in the civil movement "Resist Hopelessness", told "Vreme" and added that Đukanović has once again shown that he will not give up so easily. government in which he has participated since 1989, but the fact that his government now depends on small ethnic parties indicates that the process that will mark the end of his era has really begun in Montenegro.
"It's unstoppable." Whether it will be today or in two years, even in his party they are aware that they will not be able to rule forever", explains Milacic, referring to the state of the country in which, as he says, the economic and social deterioration of society continues, and that "only united opposition forces regardless of national and other differences can be an answer and a way out".
The official of the opposition coalition Ključ Nedeljko Rudović says that the opposition firmly stands by its decision not to recognize the elections that were anything but fair and democratic, and that "we will not and cannot recognize these elections which, as the ruling DPS claims, were held in the conditions coup d'état", i.e. the arrest of Dikić and a group of Serbian citizens suspected of terrorism by the Montenegrin prosecutor's office, the attempt to seize state institutions and even the deprivation of freedom of Đukanović himself.
The opposition demands the formation of an expert commission that will investigate all the circumstances that led to the arrest of Dikić, first of all who is behind the staged coup d'état attempt. The commission, as the opposition claims, should also include international experts. Just in case.
Rudović, however, says that regardless of the final outcome, these elections have only deepened the deep political crisis in the country that has been going on for months: "Never have elections been more irregular. Never again did the opposition and the civil sector collect and forward to the prosecution evidence, recordings, and documentation about vote buying by the ruling DPS. Not to mention the staged coup d'état."
MINORITY GOVERNMENT MINORITY: Although the ruling DPS declared victory in the elections on Monday and announced the imminent formation of the new Montenegrin government, the fourth since the country voted for independence in 2006, the official announcement of the election results by the State Election Commission will probably have to wait. The commission, which at the time this article goes to press has not yet announced the official turnout in the elections, also includes opposition representatives whose votes are needed to make the election results official.
The move being considered by the four opposition parties that won a total of 40 mandates in the elections - the pro-Russian alliance Democratic Front, the civic coalition Ključ, the recently founded Democratic Montenegro and the former longtime ally of Djukanović, the Social Democratic Party - is to offer the minority parties to form a government together.
According to that scenario, albeit a very unlikely one, the opposition would support a cabinet formed by Albanians, Bosniaks and Croats, that is, offer support for their minority government.
Analysts in Podgorica do not believe much in the possibility of Montenegro getting a prime minister who is a Croat, Albanian or Bosniak, who claim that the three parties "as natural partners" of the current ruling elite will still prefer Đukanović.
Political analyst Zlatko Vujović told local media that the differences between the minority parties and part of the opposition (referring primarily to the anti-NATO Democratic Front) are currently too great for it to be realistic to agree on the formation of a new government. He told the Montenegrin agency MINA that "something like this is only possible if influential centers outside Montenegro, which have a strong influence on those parties, would eventually change their attitude towards the coalition government."
DPS with minorities".
THE GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY: The third option, which Montenegrin opposition parties are reluctant to talk about both officially and unofficially for now, is the possibility of their representatives being in the seventh government led by Đukanović.
For many connoisseurs of the situation and local analysts, this is precisely the key question - whether the Democratic Party of Socialists will try to create a wider coalition and whether they will succeed in doing so if they decide to do so, or will they have a minimal coalition whose functioning will be characterized by a "strong blackmail capacity" of small members".
There was a lot of speculation about such a "government of national unity" in the Montenegrin media even before the elections, especially after Đukanović in April offered five seats to representatives of three opposition parties that are considered civil and moderate.
That temporary government did not pay off much for Đukanović, especially after several scandals opened or inspired by opposition ministers, but it received strong support above all from the EU delegation in Montenegro and the American embassy in Podgorica.
That is why many still believe that the idea of a broad government in which there will be room for minority parties and part of the opposition is a certain option.
NATO AND RUSSIAN DOLLARS: Đukanović and his party so far show no signs of concern over the opposition's decision not to recognize the elections and offer small ethnic parties to try together to oust him from the game.
"It wasn't easy, a great power aligned itself against tiny Montenegro, but thanks to you we succeeded," Đukanović told his supporters right after Sunday's parliamentary elections.
His party says that the victory on Sunday was more convincing and significant because DPS independently won more votes than in earlier elections when it participated in wider coalitions, twice as many as the second place.
"Citizens of Montenegro have again wisely and thoughtfully chosen stability, prosperity and European values for themselves and their families," says the DPS. The campaign they ran strongly relied on the promotion of the image and works of Đukanović himself and not the party, with promotional videos in which the Montenegrin prime minister appeared exclusively, but even more on proving that the pro-European and NATO future of Montenegro will be threatened if the opposition comes to power.
The ruling party, as well as Đukanović, did not miss a single promotional rally or appearance in the media to prove that only the DPS is the guarantor that Montenegro will finish the process of joining NATO in December of last year.
All that, in case the opposition comes to power, they said in Đukanović's party, could be called into question because of official Moscow's attempt to interfere with the outcome of the Montenegrin elections.
Indirect accusations at the beginning of the election campaign that Russia was financing the opposition Democratic Front became open just a few days before the vote when Djukanovic said that the opposition's "eyes only open a little when they see the stunning color of Russian dollars."
"Why do they do that?" So that they would immorally and undeservedly, imposed from outside, come to the head of Montenegro, against whose reconstruction and development they worked hard for 25 years. In order to pick up the crumbs from the Russian table, where their betrayal of Montenegro is paid for," said Đukanović at the pre-election campaign on October 10.
DI WILL FLY AT MEDJED: The Opposition Front, on the other hand, has repeatedly accused the USA of interfering in internal political relations in Montenegro, especially after the visit to Montenegro of Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Hoyt Brian Yee i official talks with the state leadership and leaders of some opposition political parties.
"Djukanović went after Russia, the fly went after the honeybee... In 2005, he asked for 300 million euros in aid from Russia for the Montenegrin people and the Montenegrin economy," Front replied to Djukanović, alluding to his long-standing close relations with Moscow and some of the Russian oligarch, first of all Oleg Deripaska, who was a significant investor in Montenegro until 2012.
But there were no losers in that conflict - in foreign media reports after the election, Đukanović was declared the guardian of the pro-Western idea not only in Montenegro, but also in the region, while the part of the opposition gathered in the Democratic Front received almost 22 percent of the votes on the platform "Montenegro is important to Russia" and its idea of unity among pan-Slavic states.
Perhaps more than the possible outcome of the election, the post-election combinatorics of the parties and who did and who did not buy votes for the DPS account, the Montenegrin public was interested in who General Bratislav Dikić was and on what business he arrived in Montenegro, because only a few "swallowed" the official version of events about the alleged planned terrorist attack in Podgorica.
For days now, commentators on social networks have been coming up with theories as to whether Diković was framed or was hired on the orders of "someone in Belgrade" to help the victory of Milo Đukanović with the story of the alleged attack.
The news that a "coup d'état" was being prepared in Podgorica, but that the police thwarted it and saved the country, was announced on Saturday evening before the elections by the spokespersons of the Montenegrin Prime Minister's party - the former state newspaper "Pobjeda" and the Montenegrin branch of Pink Television.
The following day, the police confirmed the arrest of 20 Serbian citizens, who allegedly found a large amount of weapons and ammunition. And the prosecutor's office soon came forward to announce that Dikić and his team were planning to seize state institutions and arrest Đukanović "at the expense of some parties". Admittedly, the prosecution did not mention weapons or ammunition anymore.
Dozens of police cars with sirens and sirens frantically patrolled Podgorica after that arrest, and police chiefs repeated several times that they would not allow "attacks on the state".
The opposition claims that these were an obvious attempt to intimidate opposition voters, but also to suggest to the undecided that the state will be threatened if they do not vote for DPS.
News about the former commander of the Gendarmerie's alleged connections with Montenegrin police officials flooded social media, as did the information that back in 2010 the government hired him to train a controversial special police unit.
What was striking was the need of Montenegrin officials to show that, although Diković was a high-ranking police officer, official Belgrade had nothing to do with the alleged coup attempt.
That theory was fueled the most by the footage of local TV stations, which conspicuously shows that none of those arrested for alleged terrorism are handcuffed while being taken to the prosecutor's hearing.
Đukanović's victory and an even better result than in the 2012 elections, when he was in a coalition with several smaller parties, was overshadowed by the huge number of criminal charges filed due to alleged irregularities on the voting day itself, but also in the days leading up to the elections.
Several reputable civil society organizations, whose around 1500 observers monitored the elections, testify to numerous attempts by activists of Djukanović's party to influence voters on the day of voting, allegedly by offering voters money in exchange for personal documents, so that they would not vote for the opposition.
There is almost no polling station in the small state, where about 530.000 people had the right to vote, in the vicinity of which non-governmental organizations did not register and photograph "suspicious persons" in parked cars that register everyone entering to vote.
It was speculated that opposition sympathizers were offered 30 to 50 euros to "sell" their identity card and not vote.
Meanwhile, the opposition and non-governmental organizations published dozens of videos and documents that allegedly prove that the ruling DPS organized transportation and offered money for thousands of Montenegrin citizens from the diaspora to come and vote.
Special charter flights were allegedly organized from several European countries and voters who prove they voted for DPS, mostly by photographing a circled ballot, were allegedly promised 250 euros each.
Đukanović's party has repeatedly rejected such claims, and Prime Minister Đukanović himself said that they have no need to pay anyone to vote for them, when they are certainly the best option for citizens.
They say that the winner of the parliamentary elections is clear: "DPS won 36 mandates and that is an indisputable fact, which cannot be disputed by the desperate attempts of the election losers to question the triumph of DPS."
"The regularity and democracy of the past elections, which were monitored by 2092 domestic and over 500 foreign observers, which made these the most controlled elections in Montenegro since the referendum on independence in 2006, were confirmed by all relevant international addresses - the OSCE observation mission and ODIHR, the European Union, the United States of America and NATO, and neither the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs nor the State Duma question the regularity and results of the weekly elections," said Djukanovic's party.
The Montenegrin Special Prosecutor's Office for Organized Crime and Corruption is now on the move, to which on election day alone around 115 criminal charges were filed due to alleged vote-buying, as well as accusations that "dead people voted", after non-governmental organizations submitted evidence that in the election the list includes dozens of centenarians.
A favorite joke that circulated on social networks days before the election supports those accusations: Two elderly Montenegrins complain to each other that they are too weak to go vote. And then one angrily says: "If that one could get up from the grave to vote, how come you can get out of bed."
