For decades, the country Western Balkans preparing for accession EU. Experts also agree that Montenegro and Albania have advanced the furthest in their efforts to fulfill the conditions for membership, and in the European Union.
However, in Serbia, the largest and economically strongest of the six candidate countries, the reform process has stalled. Therefore, the question arises whether the EU should receive soon Montenegro i Albania, even at the risk of Serbia, with its ally Russia, further destabilizes the region?
Experts and politicians interviewed by the Reuters agency say - yes, it should. Because that would also increase the pressure on Serbia, writes Deutsche Welle.
End of negotiations – Montenegro 2026, Albania 2027.
After the horrors of the wars of the 1990s, the European Union set itself the goal in 2003 of integrating the countries of the Western Balkans - Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Albania - into the community of states in the long term.
In its latest progress report published in early November, the European Commission confirmed that Montenegro can complete accession negotiations by the end of 2026. The Brussels authorities projected the year 2027 for Albania.
However, in relation to Serbia, it was stated that the pace of reforms has "slowed down significantly". The German government is trying to keep all the candidate countries, which was shown by the fact that the Minister of Foreign Affairs Johann Wadeful recently visited all six countries.
An appeal by German politicians for quick admission
"Montenegro and Albania are currently favorites. They are fulfilling their homework and therefore should be given a concrete opportunity to join," insists Adis Ahmetović, foreign policy spokesman of the ruling German Social Democrats (SPD) parliamentary group in the Bundestag.
"If we don't take care of those countries, others will - as China and Russia have already done," says 32-year-old Ahmetović, who himself has family roots in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The politician of the German opposition Greens, Chantal Kopf, who, together with Ahmetović, accompanied Wadeful on his trip to the Western Balkans, is equally clear: "Montenegro and Albania should not suffer under the policies of the Serbian regime, but should be admitted to the EU as soon as they meet all the criteria."
Serbia "just snaps its fingers" and destabilizes Montenegro
However, Serbia expects to be in the first round of EU accession. If, therefore, Montenegro were accepted, and Serbia was not - how would the government in Belgrade react?
Of the approximately 600.000 inhabitants of Montenegro, 33 percent are ethnic Serbs - the latest data from the state statistics office there. That is why there is a fear that the president of Serbia would Aleksandar Vučić could try to incite unrest in Montenegro after its accession to the EU.
"Given the demographic composition of the country, Serbia would only have to snap its fingers and Montenegro would be destabilized," says Markus Kaiser, project manager for the Western Balkans at the Belgrade office of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, which is closely linked to Germany's opposition Free Democratic Party (FDP).
Such concerns also exist within the German government.
What is Putin's strategy?
Serbia is one of Russia's closest allies in Europe and has so far refused to support European Union sanctions against Moscow over its attack on Ukraine. Political scientist Vedran Džihić, in a statement for the Austrian daily "Presse", says, however, that he does not believe that the Russian president Vladimir Putin has a kind of master strategy for the Western Balkans.
"He simply wants to deal blows to the West. He wants to prevent EU expansion and, above all, NATO expansion at all costs," Džihić believes, adding: "He wants to disrupt things. He wants to tie up Western resources."
Putin, says Džihić, is doing this with the help of disinformation and with allies like Vučić or Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik.
"Serbia is currently not a credible candidate"
The European Union should not allow Serbia, and thus indirectly Russia, to dictate its course regarding the admission of new members, says German social democrat Ahmetović. At the same time, he emphasizes: "In times of growing authoritarianism and protectionism, the EU must show that it has the strength to continue growing."
Tina Boriz, head of research on the Western Balkans and EU enlargement at the Berlin think tank Aspen-Institute, believes that Serbia is currently not a credible candidate for EU membership: "Restrictions on media freedom, a strongly dominated political landscape and a weak division of power burden the institutional structures," Boriz points out.
Moreover, Serbia refuses to harmonize its foreign and security policy with EU policy, says Boriz and concludes that all this "complicates Serbia's role in the region and negatively affects its path to EU membership."
Serbia to answer - whether it wants to join the EU or Russia
After a meeting with his Serbian counterpart Marko Djuric, German Foreign Minister Wadeful demanded from Belgrade a "clear commitment" to the EU's position on foreign and security policy: Serbia must condemn Russian aggression against Ukraine, he said.
Đurić emphasized at that joint press conference: "Serbia wants to become a member of the EU as soon as possible."
But, in fact, it is President Vučić who must make a commitment, says German SPD politician Ahmetović. The European Union, he adds, must "demand a clear answer to the question of which direction Serbia wants to go - towards the EU or towards Russia. That answer must primarily be given by the president".
Acceptance of Montenegro would put pressure on Serbia
Markus Kaiser from the representative office of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation in Belgrade cites another reason for the rapid accession of Montenegro and Albania to the European Union - this, he believes, would put pressure on Serbia. Because, if it were to happen that "Serbs in Montenegro enjoy more advantages due to EU membership than Serbs in Serbia, then they could start to reconsider their position".
In Kaiser's view, the EU should do much more to support reformist forces in Serbia - such as the ongoing protests by students and large sections of the population against the government in Belgrade.
Regarding the accession to the European Union of the two leading candidates, Montenegro and Albania, he emphasizes: "Somehow progress must be made - and that would be a step that would definitely have consequences."
