Whose gas smells better?

Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine three years ago, gas has become one of the main weapons in the geopolitical competition of the great powers, whereby European Union became a key scene of the struggle for energy resources. After several decades of Russian dominance in the gas sector of the Old Continent, Norway and the United States of America have become by far the largest suppliers of energy to the European Union.

As another form of pressure on Moscow, the European Commission is presenting this Tuesday (May 6) a proposal for measures that would prohibit the signing of new oil and gas contracts with Russia, as well as a ban on the import of Russian gas based on new contracts. These measures are part of Brussels' strategy to completely end dependence on Russian energy by 2027.

Change at the top

Norway, for example, last year provided more than 33 percent of all imported gas deliveries to the EU, while the United States became the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with almost 45 percent of total LNG imports. US LNG imports to the EU more than doubled in 2021, indicating "America's growing role in Europe's energy grid," according to Reuters.

In the previous period, the central narrative of the European Union was that Moscow was using gas as a means of political and economic pressure on other countries. However, the situation has not changed too much even today, on the contrary – the EU is again largely dependent on one large supplier. Instead of Gazprom, it is now the Norwegian company Equinor, which has taken over the EU market and become the largest supplier of natural gas, while, as the numbers show, the USA has become the dominant supplier of liquefied natural gas to the European market.

Thus, according to data from the operator of the Norwegian gas pipeline system Gasco (Gassco), a total of 2024 billion cubic meters of gas was transported from Norway to Europe in 117,6. By comparison, at their peak in 2018 and 2019, annual gas flows from Russia to Europe reached between 175 and 180 billion cubic meters.

When it comes to the import of black gold, according to Eurostat data for 2024, the largest suppliers of oil and oil derivatives for the European Union were again the United States of America with a share of 16,1 percent, Norway with 13,5 percent and Kazakhstan with 11,5 percent. The share of Russia in the import of oil and oil derivatives to the European Union has also decreased significantly. While in the fourth quarter of 2022, Russia accounted for 18 percent of total oil imports into the EU, in the fourth quarter of 2024, that share fell to less than 2 percent, which is a visible consequence of multiple Western sanctions against Moscow.

Challenges and plans

However, the EU still faces complex energy challenges exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, despite efforts to diversify gas sources at all costs in order to reduce dependence on individual suppliers and strengthen the energy security of the Old Continent. The key direction of that policy is the strong and almost fanatical commitment of Brussels to completely abolish the import of Russian fossil fuels, including natural gas.

That is why the European Commission announced measures aimed at the complete abolition of the import of Russian energy into the European Union by 2027. Although this proposal is not yet legally binding for member states, it represents an important part of the European bloc's long-term energy strategy.

The European Commission is currently considering legal options that would allow companies to terminate all existing Russian gas contracts without fear of possible sanctions and payment of large penalties. However, getting all 27 EU members to agree on these issues is a challenge, as countries like Slovakia and Hungary seek to preserve economic and political ties with Russia, including in the energy domain. Almost two-thirds of the gas that Hungary imports still comes from Russia, while, according to the European Union's report on Slovakia, the share of Russian gas in the country's total imports fell to a still significant 50 percent last year.

By the way, the seventeenth package of sanctions against Russia is currently being discussed in Brussels. Several countries advocated that among the new restrictions be a ban on the import of Russian LNG, which would further tighten relations between the EU and Russia in the energy sphere.

Litigation worth billions

Despite all the EU's efforts to suppress Moscow's energy "footprint", Russia still remains a significant player in Europe's energy supply, providing around 19% of the EU's gas, mainly through the TurkStream pipeline and significant LNG deliveries. Russian LNG imports to the EU rose by 9 percent in 2024, "to $8,5 billion, the third year of Russia's war in Ukraine," according to the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA).

In addition, numerous legal disputes between Gazprom and European energy companies over broken contracts and unpaid payments have reached a value of around 18,5 billion euros ($21 billion), further complicating the EU's energy ties with Russia, according to Reuters.

As Europe seeks to diversify its energy portfolio, the role of the United States and Norway in gas supply is expected to grow. Especially considering that US President Donald Trump is putting increasing pressure on Western partners to increase imports of US LNG. At the same time, the geopolitical and legal consequences of reducing dependence on Russian energy sources will continue to remain a key topic in future negotiations and strategies within the Union.