Balancing between the West and Russia amid the Ukrainian war

For "Vreme" from Tbilisi

The Georgian parliament made a historic decision last Friday, when it rejected the second reading of the law "On transparency of foreign influence" in just 30 seconds. It is a key victory in the ten-year conflict between pro-Western and pro-Russian interests in this small country in the South Caucasus.

The events that led to the victory began with the adoption of the first reading of the law - dubbed "Russian" in Georgia - last Tuesday, March 7. This triggered large protests, primarily among young people, who were soon joined by activists and the parliamentary opposition.

Although the protests began peacefully, special forces were deployed to break them up, which only further strengthened the protesters' determination. Harsh measures failed to quell the protests, so women and other sympathizers joined them on March 8. Social networks played an essential role in opposing this law, and the hashtag "No to the Russian law" gained momentum as new posts appeared every day. Those posts were shared by very different people, from ordinary citizens to distinguished personalities - writers, musicians, football players and university rectors.

Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili supported the protesters and vowed to veto the law. However, analysts indicated that the parliament could pre-empt the veto, as there are mechanisms for this in the Georgian Constitution.

The protests lasted for three days, from March 7 to 9, and the number of demonstrators ranged from a few tens of thousands to a hundred thousand at some moments. Despite the ruling party's promise to withdraw the law, protesters remained skeptical and demanded that the annulment be done in accordance with due process. Finally, the law underwent a second reading and was voted against, leading to its withdrawal from the agenda. It was the first time that the ruling party gave in under public pressure.

EMERGENCE OF A LEADERLESS GENERATION

Georgia is a country with a rich tradition of protests, which is why it is difficult to surprise its people with demonstrations. The country's history has been marked by several iconic protests, the first of which was the demonstration on April 9, 1989. That protest played a key role in Georgia's independence, despite being brutally suppressed by Soviet troops. Another protest worth noting was the "Pink Revolution" of 2003, when Georgians rose up against the corruption and destruction that had taken on massive proportions under the second president, Eduard Shevarnadze, a former USSR foreign minister. This joint effort brought the young reformer Mikheil Saakashvili to power. Despite being the first in Georgia to lose power in an election rather than a revolution or military coup, Saakashvili's administration faced numerous anti-government demonstrations in 2012. Those protests led to the defeat of Saakashvili's party, so today the ruling party in Georgia is Georgian Dream.

During the ten-year reign of the Georgian Dream, politicians and activists used various forms of protest, including demonstrations, hunger strikes, and civil disobedience. Despite their various motives, these protests often failed to achieve their political demands, which led to disillusionment and apathy among the public, and contributed to feelings of hopelessness and lack of interest in protesting.

However, recent demonstrations against Georgia's version of the law on foreign agents have led to a significant change in society's attitude. According to journalists and political scientists, that protest attracted many young people, including students and high school students, who flooded the streets and showed fearlessness in front of the police. Viral videos of teenagers dodging water cannons or dancing to the sound of sirens have circulated on social media showing their unique approach to leaderless protest.
The change is significant, since the absence of a charismatic opposition figure to lead the protest movement has been recognized as a key factor in the apathy and inertia that previously suffocated Georgian society. Therefore, the emergence of a new generation of protesters, those who do not trust in one leader, is a positive sign for the future of protest movements in Georgia.

The success of the March protests can also be attributed to a third important factor, namely the participation of civil servants, who are usually seen as dependent and loyal to the ruling party. That event is very significant, as it was the first time that civil servants joined the protest movement. The woman holding the EU flag, the main symbol of the March protests, turned out to be employed by the Tbilisi City Administration, a highly politicized structure headed by Kaha Kaladze, Tbilisi's ruling party mayor.

It is common practice in Georgia for political parties to abuse power by using the administrative resources at their disposal. The ruling Georgian Dream party is no exception in this regard. However, the participation of civil servants in the March demonstrations sent a clear message that the existing system has failed. The fact that they are willing to join the protests despite the possible consequences, such as losing their jobs, indicates a growing discontent and a demand for change.

WHY IS IT? "RUSKI" THE LAW IS SO BAD?

Dissatisfaction with the authorities in Georgia has been simmering for some time, but the highly unpopular "Russian" law has become the last straw for many. The law, officially titled the "Foreign Influence Transparency Act," has drawn near-universal opposition because it is believed to lead to stigmatization and discrimination against non-governmental organizations. According to that law, NGOs that are financed with more than 20 percent from foreign sources would have to register as "foreign agents", which, as many fear, would expose them to additional control and pressure from the authorities. In addition, opponents say that the budgets of those organizations are already transparent and easily accessible to the Ministry of Finance. And finally, the charge of hostile foreign influence contradicts Georgia's commitment to the country's inclusion in Euro-Atlantic structures.

Although the Georgian Dream party claims the law is based on American legislation from the Great Depression, its opponents say it resembles a Russian law used by the Kremlin to contain opponents within its own borders. The adoption of the law was met with criticism from Georgia's Western allies, including international organizations, US senators and members of the European Parliament, who warned that it was contrary to Western values. The US Embassy called the day when the law passed in the first reading "a black day for Georgian democracy".

STIMULATION TACTICS AND THE LEGACY OF THE 2008 WAR.

The People's Power movement, which proposed the law, broke with the ruling party six months ago to express anti-Western views. During its short existence, it promoted various conspiracy theories, among them the one that the West finances Georgian NGOs in order to incite the people to revolution, as well as that the goal of the EU and the US is to provoke a war with Russia. Although most rational voters did not take such claims seriously, the possibility of another conflict with Russia remains painful and frightening for many in Georgia, especially after the 2008 war. The government in Georgia often uses the fear of a possible war with Russia as a PR tactic.

The Georgian government, which has lost most of its voters over the years, managed to stay in power last year by convincing the population that without it, Russia would bomb not only Ukrainian, but also Georgian cities. The phrase "But we are not at war" has become a universal response to every criticism directed at the government since February last year. The government responded to accusations of pro-Kremlin by claiming that its policy was flexible and that it was preventing Russia from occupying Georgia. That claim is usually accompanied by the message that if opponents of the Georgian Dream were in power, Russia would completely destroy Georgia.

The United People's Movement is the largest opposition party in Georgia and the main rival of the ruling Georgian Dream party. Before 2012, the United People's Movement was in power and carried out several successful reforms that received international recognition. However, the party was also criticized for abuse of power, suppression of the media and financial malfeasance, which led to their defeat in the parliamentary elections that year.

For the 2008 war, Georgian Dream often blames the failures of the previous government, led by Saakashvili, suggesting that if the leader had been someone else, the conflict would have been avoided. Recently, members of the Georgian parliament expressed their intention to establish a commission to investigate the crimes committed during that war. Although direct charges have never been made, it is widely believed that the commission is unlikely to find the Russian side responsible. Such a move seems unusual in light of a recent decision by the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which concluded its investigation into war crimes committed during the conflict without indicting a single member of the Georgian military.

GEORGIA'S DELICATE DANCE BETWEEN THE WEST AND RUSSIA

Bidzina Ivanishvili, a Georgian billionaire who made his fortune in Russia, founded the Georgian Dream party that currently governs Georgia. He entered politics in 2011, founding the opposition coalition Georgian Dream, with which he won the parliamentary elections in 2012 and became prime minister. Although he has not officially held any office for a long time, he is still a powerful figure and is often seen as the one who makes all the important political decisions, including the election of the prime minister and the presidential candidate. The opposition criticizes Ivanishvili for ruling from the shadows and avoiding responsibility. Many experts in Georgia also believe that he has considerable influence without being held accountable for his actions.

Mikheil Saakashvili, the biggest and most dangerous opponent of billionaire Ivanishvili, is currently in prison on charges that include organizing an attack, embezzlement and embezzlement of an independent television company. Since his arrest in October 2021, Saakashvili has maintained that he is Putin's prisoner and that the Georgian authorities imprisoned him on the orders of the Kremlin.

Saakashvili was one of the first to accuse the Georgian Dream party of favoring the Kremlin, but the government rejected all these allegations, assuring voters that the direction of the country's foreign policy has not changed and that they remain focused on European integration. However, some things say otherwise.

One of the proofs of cooperation between the Georgian Dream and the Kremlin is the amnesty that Ivanishvili's government declared immediately after coming to power. That amnesty referred to individuals convicted of espionage for Russia. Critics also point to the suspension of several strategic infrastructure projects, the goal of which was to create competition for Russian logistics and transport companies. This includes the return of the Georgian energy sector's dependence on Russia, which Saakashvili's team has been fighting against for a long time.

Nevertheless, the government managed to maintain the fragile belief of the electorate that Georgia still aspires to the West and not to the North. However, everything changed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February, making the pro-Russian stance of the Georgian government obvious to the average Georgian Dream voter.

Georgia sees Ukraine as a strategic partner and has strong ties with that country, since they have the same experience with Russia. As a nation that has endured three military conflicts and lost 20 percent of its territory, Georgians empathize with Ukrainians and their struggle. In the 2008s, Russia supported the secession of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which led to their independence in XNUMX, after the Georgian-Russian war. As a result, many Georgians were disappointed that their government did not strongly condemn Russian aggression against Ukraine. Despite the people's demand, the ruling party avoided calling Russia an aggressor and did not join the sanctions against Russia, nor did it send military aid to Ukraine. This has raised suspicions that he may be working with Russia to circumvent sanctions, as well as suspicions that he is allowing Russian planes to use Georgian airspace. In addition, the impression is that the government has not provided enough support to the Georgian volunteers fighting on the side of Ukraine, and is even proposing to revoke their citizenship.

In 2022 and 2023, Georgians organized mass protests to express their dissatisfaction and anger at the government's lack of support for Ukraine. To prove its pro-European stance, the government applied for EU membership, but it was rejected because it did not meet EU standards. However, the Union offered a possible solution through a 12-point plan that, if implemented, could secure Georgia candidate status. Although it is uncertain whether that plan will be implemented, the situation now seems more favorable.