The most famous German politician will appear as the last witness before the Bundestag's Investigative Committee on Afghanistan. Former chancellor Angela Merkel should explain in early December why her government was completely surprised in August 2021 by the rapid takeover of power by radical Islamists Taliban, as well as why the evacuation of German citizens and Afghan local collaborators was partially chaotic.
Before the former chancellor, two members of her then government will be heard: Foreign Affairs Minister Heiko Maas and Development Minister Gerd Müller. The Social Democrat (SPD) Mas ruled out the possibility of such a scenario just before the Islamists entered the capital, Kabul. writes DW.
Heiko Mas: "We misjudged the situation"
On August 2021, XNUMX, the head of diplomacy of the Federal Republic of Germany had to admit: "All of us - the government, the intelligence services, the international community - misjudged the situation." So far, no witness before the Investigative Committee has convincingly explained how this could have happened. This also applies to a high-ranking official of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who left Afghanistan shortly before the final debacle.
"I couldn't have imagined that it would happen so soon," an expert sent by Mas to Afghanistan said during testimony in October 2022. And he added: "The security situation was continuously deteriorating." SPD deputy in the Investigative Committee, Jörg Nürnberger, had already heard that statement from many witnesses. However, the early warnings of foreign intelligence services about the rapid advance of the Taliban were also discussed several times.
The government believed the wrong assessment of BND
However, that information was not directly forwarded to the government, Nurnberger explains in an interview with DW. The Federal Intelligence Service (BND), tasked with collecting information from abroad, apparently assessed the situation differently. All collected information was consolidated in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "In the end, they relied on the BND's assessment that a quick Taliban takeover is still not expected."
Such a fatal miscalculation, according to Nurnberger, occurred in all government departments involved in the mission in Afghanistan. This is how the Ministry of Development, under the leadership of CSU member Gerd Müller, considered as early as August 2021 that it could remain present on the ground longer. "Accordingly, they tried to keep local collaborators in the country for as long as possible," Nurnberger points out.
"The chancellor really tried"
He describes the role of Angela Merkel as differentiated. Based on the documents, it is not evident that the chancellor at the time had a coordinating or leading role. Its direct influence was not established. Still, Nurnberger notes that she pushed for a generous evacuation of Afghan local collaborators. "The chancellor really tried."
On December 5, Jörg Nurnberger and the other members of the Afghanistan Inquiry Committee will have the opportunity to question Merkel directly. To prepare, they could also read a few pages from her memoir, published this week, entitled "Freedom" (Freiheit). In it, Merkel writes that on August 13, 2021, two days before the final victory of the Taliban, Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer informed her by phone about the worsening of the situation around Kabul.
Green light to evacuate
The former chancellor further describes how she reacted to the dramatic situation: "The next morning, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, in a telephone conference with the other relevant ministers, gave the green light for the detailed preparation of the evacuation."
Images of thousands of desperate people trying to escape the Taliban went around the world. Merkel will likely be reminded of this during her upcoming appearance before the Afghanistan Inquiry Committee.