Ambassador of Ukraine to Great Britain Valery Zaluzhny, who headed the Ukrainian armed forces at the beginning war with Russia, in an author's text for the British "Telegraph", presented a strategic analysis in which he openly warns the West about dangerous misconceptions in the assessment of the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe.
While many Western analysts, based on individual successes of Kyiv, too quickly conclude that Russia is slowly losing the war., Zaluzhny - who is also reputed to be the favorite in the future presidential elections in Ukraine - emphasizes that this is a superficial interpretation that completely ignores the bigger picture. In the text, he explains that technological progress in the form of drones, precision strikes and constant aerial surveillance has fundamentally changed the battlefield, so "modern warfare no longer rewards tactical victories in the way it once did."
Successes on the front are measured in meters, not kilometers
Instead of quick breakthroughs, the conflict entered a phase where "successes are measured in meters, not kilometers", and with huge losses. Zalužni is clear in his assessment of the current dynamics: "This is no longer a war of rapid maneuvers. This is a war of attrition."
A stalemate has been established on the front - Russia does not have the military power to completely subdue Ukraine, while Ukraine currently does not have enough resources to liberate all territories by force. Moscow is aware of this balance of "mutual denial" of victory and now bases its strategy on the economic and psychological crushing of Ukraine, using greater manpower reserves and stronger industrial capacities.
Illusions failed in Putin's defeat
Photo: Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP, FileMany consider him the new president of Ukraine
In the article, Zaluzni shatters Western illusions about Russian withdrawal and notes that "Russia continues to fight and has not shown any intention to end the war under conditions that would mean admitting defeat."
This narrative also coincides with the leaked information that Russian President Vladimir Putin is rejecting calls for peace talks with Kiev, as three sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters. Recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian critical infrastructure, oil refineries and ports across the country have reportedly only strengthened Putin's determination to continue the fight.
The former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces has expressed rather gloomy assessments of the further course of the war on several occasions. He criticized Kiev's current strategy, which relies too much on its own demographic capacities, which, in a conflict with a numerically superior opponent, "leads to inevitable defeat" in the long run. Zaluznyi warned that the issue of mobilization in Ukraine is increasingly becoming the epicenter of the conflict between citizens and the Ukrainian government, which further undermines the internal stability of the country.
Carefully directed solidarity with Ukraine
In an article for "Telegraf" he writes that Russia is still "capable of retaliating with the same, or even greater forces", and that at this moment neither side can count on "this form of waging war by itself to bring about a decisive strategic outcome".
He also writes that the West's diplomatic summits and "carefully directed demonstrations of solidarity" have only symbolic value, because they do not guarantee the permanent political unity that is necessary for a long-term confrontation with Russia.
The key factor for Ukraine's survival is international aid
Precisely because of this, the war can no longer be viewed primarily through the prism of displacement on the front line itself. In such circumstances, the focus shifts to logistics, infrastructure, air defense and social resilience. Even physical control of territory, such as the land corridor to Crimea held by Russian forces, loses its value under long-range strikes that make it unsustainable.
The key factor for Ukraine's survival therefore still remains international aid, but it is already "showing signs of fatigue" due to political changes in Washington and divisions in Europe. Zaluzni reminds that the outcomes of such conflicts are not decided on the basis of "who will occupy the next village or destroy the ammunition depot", but whose society can continue to bear the "economic, military and psychological burden of a long-term conflict", while at the same time maintaining the international support necessary for its survival.
"Wars of attrition do not produce clear winners in the conventional sense. They are decided by endurance," the article states.
Is NATO ready for the 21st century?
The author directs a critical review towards the NATO alliance, stating that "the war in Ukraine opened up unpleasant questions about whether NATO is equipped for the conflicts of the 21st century." The problem of this alliance, in his opinion, is not a lack of weapons, but an outdated "strategic culture from the Cold War era", where the main goal was to avoid escalation and manage crises, instead of actively shaping the outcome.
Zaluzni draws attention to the fact that the nature of warfare has changed dramatically, and that "drone technology, precision strikes, cyber warfare and the rapid development of technological innovations" require a different approach to deterrence and collective defense today.
In the end, Ukraine's ambassador to the United Kingdom concludes that stability cannot be brought about by the institutions of the past, but by readiness for change: "The future security of Europe will ultimately depend not only on those who are ready to defend themselves, but also on those who are willing to lead a new strategic vision of the continent. Ukraine has shown that it is ready for the former. The question that still remains open is who is ready to do the latter."
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