It happened twenty-five years ago, but it still haunts them. For Vučić, Dačić, Vulin, Toma Nikolić, Bratin and the rest of the brothers, the Fifth of October was and remains a specter in the dead of night and a cold chill down the spine that comes from nowhere and collapses self-satisfaction and self-confidence. Then the people from Espes, the radicals and the Julovs got out of power, the people really chased them through the streets, and Žeks Mitrović betrayed and sold by the kilo yesterday's comrades from the government, together with other flyovers.
It was the fruit of their past work from 1987 to 2000 and the mother of the current fears and paranoia. Because if the people could enforce justice twenty-five years ago, why not again? However, nothing is simple here.
HEROES OF THEIR TIME
History does not repeat itself. Certain circumstances may be the same, but not the context. For example, Sloba Milošević and Vučić are united by an autocratic way of governing, contempt for the Constitution and the law, demagoguery, nepotism, nationalism, promoting their own cult of personality, abhorrence of democracy, and much more, nothing good for the citizens of Serbia.
But there are also differences. While the first tried to maintain the semblance of some kind of system, the second brags about its destruction. Under Milošević, the "Red Berets" were a secret unit, and Vučić proclaims the progressive paramilitary of criminal provenance as a pillar of law and order.
And further: every public address of Sloba Serbina was an event in which he did not directly insult anyone, nor did he humiliate associates. On the other hand, Aca the Serb is on television more often than the weather forecast, his emotional outbursts and insults ignite social networks, and he allows the people around him everything except personal integrity.
But this is only a matter of ruling style. The essence is in the fact that Milosevic believed in something, and strengthened his authority and position with hopeless and disastrous conflicts for Serbia, which in 1999 led to the NATO attack with smart and even stupider bombs. Vučić learned this lesson - he doesn't believe in anything and is always ready to bend his head in front of anyone who has a little more power than him. Finally, the former was perceived by Europe and America as the "Butcher of the Balkans" and wanted by the Hague Tribunal, while the latter was seen as a stablecrat with an ugly past who is doing badly. Because of the Yugoslav wars, Milošević was globally famous and the West really wanted to overthrow him; Vučić is just a pompous little leader that no one takes seriously.
CONDITION ON THE FIELD
How isolated the former Yugoslavia was in the world is shown by the fact that it did not even have a seat in the United Nations. Due to international sanctions, gasoline, cigarettes, underpants, socks and much more were bought on the street - all smuggled goods. Ambis was so deep that Milosevic's regime in the terminal phase could no longer pay meager wages in the public sector or pensions. Crime reigned supreme, infrastructure was clearly falling apart, all wars were lost, and Serbia, after the NATO intervention - the first in the history of this military alliance - withdrew from part of its constitutional territory....
This means that there was no future under Milosevic. Police brutality, repression of citizens, mind-numbing propaganda, political liquidations could no longer help him to stay in power... One after the other, the military, police and leaders of his own party, the tycoons he personally created and, most importantly, a huge part of the electorate raised their hands against Milosevic. This situation required political verification.
Vučić's Serbia is not Milošević's. Although it is far from the "Balkan Tiger", twenty-five years of peace have taken their toll. Today's standard of living is incomparable to that of October 2000. However, there is also a but... Systemic corruption, crime, broken rule of law, miserable management capacities, wild kleptocracy and huge social stratification again dramatically threaten the future of Serbia. If in 2000 the citizens were on the brink of existence, today they are fighting against the destruction of national couples and life in an unannounced state of emergency, for the same chances for everyone, the preservation of natural and social resources...
And one more thing: like 2000, the country does not belong anywhere on the world stage. Although Putin's and Xi's systems are much closer to him than the one in the European Union, Vučić knows from the example of Milošević that the West has a decisive influence in Serbia. That's why all his meetings with the Russian or Chinese president seem cheap in the face of attempts to see Trump in Florida, even as a paratrooper at a party. This policy of slander and subterfuge further marginalizes the country. As in the time of Milošević, Serbia has no real friends, let alone allies.
4. OCTOBER
The fifth of October was not "colored" or any other revolution. It is a legal and legitimate defense of the will of the people. It is impossible to overestimate the months-long demonstrations, "Resistance" actions and large gatherings of the opposition. All of this together created a referendum mood in the elections of September 24, 2000. Although without the slightest fair and honest conditions for voting, but with opposition control of the vote that had never been seen before or since, Milošević lost. That was the end of his regime.
Vučić is somewhat in a similar position. The students and the rebellious society have already largely finished the pre-election campaign and created a referendum atmosphere. Or as they would chant - "He who doesn't jump, is the one who falls". If anyone is worried about the relatively rarer autumn protests, let them be comforted by the fact that they are still more intense than in the entire summer of 2000. Despite the military parade, the legalization for one hundred euros and the Parisian schnitzel, the regime is steadily losing its breath. That's why Vučić is killing the country and postponing early elections as the only way out of the political crisis.
Today, many regret the absence of October 6, that is, the radical showdown with power holders at all levels. It couldn't be. If various military, police, paramilitary, financial, tycoon, criminal and other structures raised their hands against Milošević, they did not do it on their own. DOS did not have the strength to deal with them. In order to avoid bloodshed and further loss of Serbia, Đinđić, Koštunica and some others agreed to "October 4". Specifically - to a direct or tacit deal with the forces of darkness in order to remain passive in popular verification of Milošević's downfall. And so it was, the Fifth of October passed without victims and with relatively speaking very little violence.
And it's good that it ended that way. The struggle to respect the electoral will of the citizens and the revolution are two things. The fifth of October would not have happened without the long-term struggle of the minority against the monstrous Milošević government, but - also - without the amnesty of the majority, whose passivity, fear, blindness and support had sustained it for so long. Despite this forced compromise, Serbia took a strong step in the right direction. The assassination of Zoran Đinđić in 2003 best shows what the new government faced on its first working day.
AND WHAT NOW?
Vučić knows that no one in the recent history of Serbia came to power without an election. That is why he is delaying them. However, when will it happen? If he tries to steal the will of the people, like Milošević, Vučić will also suffer the same fate.
This is not the only legacy of the Fifth of October that lives on. But it is the most important.
