When talking about volcanoes u Italy, most first think of Vesuvius, whose eruption destroyed Pompeii. However, far more damage could be done by a supervolcano in its vicinity. We are talking about Phlegraean fields.
A series of earthquakes, ground uplift and new insights into the internal structure of this volcano near Naples, leave scientists in doubt as to whether Italy is approaching a new eruption or whether it is another phase of unrest that the volcano will overcome without spilling magma.
A volcano much more dangerous than Vesuvius
The Phlegraean Fields are located on the southern coast of Italy, near the Gulf of Naples. They consist of a series of giant calderas, that is depressions created by the collapse of a volcanic cup. Their diameter ranges from 12 to 14 km.
Photo: WikimediaAbout half a million people live in the Phlegrean Fields area
The Italian authorities consider this volcano one of the biggest potential natural threats in the country and have developed plans for the mass evacuation of the population from the so-called "red zone" if the level of danger increases.
Approximately 39.000 years ago, a massive eruption occurred at this site. At the same time, the Kumetul-Mare volcanoes in the Romanian Carpathians and Kazbek in the Caucasus also became active. As a result, the entire territory of Europe was covered with a layer of ash up to one meter thick.
The eruption led to a volcanic winter. The average annual temperature in Europe dropped by 5 to 10 degrees.
Some researchers believe that this eruption contributed to the disappearance of the Neanderthals. Although this theory has not been definitively confirmed, scientists agree that it is one of the greatest volcanic disasters in human history.
The last eruption on the Phlegraean Fields took place in 1538, when in just a few days, the Monte Nuovo hill was created. The Phlegrean fields have become much more peaceful since then, with only occasional emissions of smoke, steam and earthquakes.
However, new research shows that this supervolcano is slowly waking up.
The volcano is breathing.
During the last 75 years, as the activity of this supervolcano has been actively monitored, numerous earthquakes have been recorded. In May of this year, one of the strongest was registered, with a magnitude of 4,4 on the Richter scale.
Photo: Alessandro Garofalo/LaPresse via APNumerous earthquakes have been recorded in the last few years
Earthquakes are also accompanied by a phenomenon known as bradyzeism - a slow rise and fall of the ground caused by pressure changes deep below the surface. Since 2005, the ground in this area has risen by about 1,4 meters, and the speed of this process has been increasing in recent years. Scientists often describe this process as "volcano breathing".
What's really going on below the surface?
New research, published on arXiv, which is still awaiting review, shows that this increased volcanic activity is leading to some change. What that could be is not yet clear.
A key question that scientists have been interested in is how much the volcano's crust has weakened and whether it has reached a point where it can no longer bear the accumulated stress. Earthquakes and the aforementioned uplift stretch the surface of the crust. This can potentially lead to cracking and eventually eruption.
Photo: NASASatellite photo of the Phlegrean Fields
Determining the potential date of an eruption is a thankless job, so scientists have been working to build a system that would update this prediction of activity every few months.
Their data show that this behavior of the volcano can be repeated between 2030 and 2034. At that moment, supposedly, something has to give way.
The exact consequences are uncertain.
According to some estimates, the Phlegrean Fields are capable of generating an eruption that would throw up to 1.000 km3 of volcanic materials into the air. This could lead to global climate changes similar to those that occurred 39.000 years ago. However, it is also possible that this event will have smaller scale effects, similar to that of 1538.
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