Can you imagine? Aleksandar Vučić, a retired politician, walking casually with his children on Knez Mihailova Street and looking at shop windows, all without being accompanied by dozens of specially trained bodyguards in full military gear?
Of course not. Political pension is directly proportional to the way you rule, and his rule is high-risk not only for the citizens of Serbia, but also for himself. Whatever you think of them, the fact that Tadić and Koštunica roam the streets of Belgrade says something about their rule, that the Serbia of two thousand, despite all its flaws, still resembled a civilized state, that at least in a certain sense there was some kind of division of power, that the law was more or less respected, and that there was at least a thin line of separation between the state and organized crime. If nothing else, at least there were elections that were not stolen from tow trucks.
The political wing of organized crime
The disbanded Vučić's rule leaves behind thousands and thousands of serious crimes, some of which have practically already been proven in public, and a greater number of those who are hiding in state safes, but also in the shelves of secret services, domestic and foreign. Documents can appear in the media and in the hands of prosecutors in no time, and will appear when there is a need for it. Some will buy indulgences with them, and some will worship him, and there are many of them. Starting with Toma Nikolić, for example. With a little good will, the evidence will be easily connected to Vučić or the Vučić family. He does not hide that he decides/they decide everything.
But much more than criminal prosecution, Vučić should fear his closest associates. He will be betrayed very easily by those who are now kissing him with cheers, but here we are not talking about his closest collaborators in the government structure, but about those he hangs out with in the dark of wine cellars. And those are mafia bosses, whose CVs contain hundreds and hundreds of dead, injured and expelled, fucked-up characters who are not to be trifled with. Nowhere in the world is it easy to be the head of the political wing of organized crime, and it doesn't usually end happily.
Do you want to retire? Wait a minute, boss, there's still a lot to do, and you know too much. That, you give a dinar to enter the circle...
And when it comes to running away, like Gruevski Makedonski, maybe something can be done there, but with a great danger that those with whom he is now in love will find him. There is much more money at stake here. And it's not just domestic crime.
Presidential elections around the corner
Basically, even if by some miracle he will, and of course he won't because his astrological card didn't fall that way, Vučić will try at all costs to keep power. He won't shy away from anything, absolutely nothing. Except that an unexpected force that appeared from somewhere, known as the students, disturbed his plans. Things have changed, and the question is whether everyone would have obeyed his orders - let's mention the drastic possibility - to shoot citizens or they would have turned their weapons to the other side.
But let's avoid drastic scenarios and return to the field of politics. The other day, Vučić spoke about changes to the Constitution. He talked about constitutional reforms in the sense of changing the status of judicial bodies that are managed, as he says, by "foreign hands". It is quite clear that with this he wanted to put additional pressure on the judicial authorities, which sometimes make decisions that he does not like.
Okay, he rants all kinds of things, now one thing, now another, but the question of changing the Constitution is definitely bothering the government and its subscribers. Not because of the judiciary, but because of something else.
It is quite an accident for the regime that 2027 is around the corner, and then new presidential elections will be held (if the multi-party system is not abolished in the meantime and a military administration led by General Vučić is introduced). It is to be hoped that by then there will be a change of government, i.e. a parliamentary majority, but even if that does not happen, the progressives are not doing very well.
According to the Constitution, Vučić cannot be a candidate again in the presidential elections. The method of shortening the mandate does not help either. And the progressives have no one who can win against them. Vučić systematically removed everyone around him who could look like a charismatic leader and surrounded himself with sycophants. Ana Brnabić, Miloš Vučević, the unfortunate Đuro Matsut - they could not even win the house council elections. And there is not a single public figure in Serbia, who has at least some dignity and dignity, and whom he could hire to play the role of president. Look right under: Đuro Macut. Only he could hire him to play the unpleasant role of prime minister.
Change of the Constitution
It remains as a possibility to change the Constitution, but let's remember how things stand there. A proposal to change the Constitution is submitted by at least a third of the people's deputies, the president of the state, the government or 150.000 citizens. That's fine. Then a two-thirds majority of all MPs is needed (so, 167 out of 250 MPs). It doesn't exist now, nor will it ever exist. But even if he spends a few billion and buys a two-thirds majority, the referendum remains. And there is certainly no chance.
The option remains that, following Putin's example, he will be transferred to the post of prime minister. But even if he had the conditions for that, and we believe that this will not happen (in the sense of the majority in the assembly), we should not lose sight of the following: the main political battle here - despite modest presidential powers - is fought in the elections for the head of state. Remember Koštunica and Tom Nikolić. The government follows the winner. Can you imagine the long line of Vučić's coalition partners and party colleagues in front of the new president's office?
Only on this other side should we have a good candidate. But we will not talk about that now.
