It seems that the leaders of the Aleksandar Vučić regime are losing their minds. After the dramatic announcement of the public address of the Prime Minister Miloš Vučević, the President of the Republic Aleksandar Vučić and the Speaker of the National Assembly Ana Brnabić on Monday evening, at which they did not say anything, on Tuesday morning the regime media announced the resignation of Prime Minister Vučević even more dramatically.
This time, the extraordinary media conference was concrete: Vučević really submitted his "irrevocable" resignation. They are following the procedures stipulated by the law, but this means that the Government has fallen.
Not finding a solution to the ever stronger and more numerous protests led by Serbian students and the blockade of the education system, due to the growing support for students, public disobedience and resistance in society to his autocratic way of ruling and endemic corruption, Vučić was forced to sacrifice the man to whom he formally entrusted the most important office in the state and a leading position in the Serbian Progressive Party.
It is the first serious sign of the weakness of the progressive regime, which has been on the constant defensive since the deadly fall of the canopy in Novi Sad, and the first victory of civil society in Serbia over the autocracy of the thirteenth year.
This is not a victory for the opposition parties, they have nothing to do with this.
Buying time
However, one should not be deceived that the forces in society (it must be said again and again - initiated and led by students) who dream of a rule of law and a functional democracy, won the final victory over the party state, lawlessness and the combination of organized crime and politicians in power.
The ball is now in the court of Vučić, who as president of Serbia formally has two options, and as the de facto head of the SNS, which has an absolute majority in the National Assembly, he has the power to implement one of them: he can call for extraordinary parliamentary elections, but he can also ordered the parliamentary majority to propose a new representative who will form a new government.
According to the letter of the law, the People's Assembly is obliged to confirm the resignation of the prime minister at the first following session, and from that moment the deadline of 30 days to elect a new government runs. If he does not do so, the President of the Republic must call for extraordinary parliamentary elections.
Due to this development of events, the opposition parties should urgently give up any attempts to block the Assembly, they should even support the holding of the session on Wednesday, and not allow Vučić to buy additional time.
Because that's exactly what Vucevic's resignation is - buying time, should the progressive leadership not find a way to get out of the situation in which they found themselves. And, of course, an attempt to blow out the wind on which the student protests are sailing.
Vučić had already announced a "serious reconstruction of the government". If his parliamentary majority elects a new prime minister, and then the AV struggles again for months until it decides on ministers as loyal as possible to him, months will pass, and nothing will fundamentally change at the top of the government.
Vučić's room for maneuver
This is a serious blow to this government, this victim of Vučević is the first undoubted acknowledgment of Aleksandar Vučić's weakness, but he is far from defeated. Vucevic, by himself, is irrelevant.
In order for changes to really occur in Serbia, it is necessary to combine several things.
First, the student protests should not stop, and for now there are no such indications.
Second, civil servants should start joining the anti-corruption protest, which would lead to a real general strike.
Thirdly, the leaders of the opposition parties should hold their ears, act unitedly and seriously ask themselves what is the cause of their unpopularity. Now, not when some kind of election is called one day.
And fourth, the West that supports Vučić should finally give up on him, which will happen if he is unable to implement what was agreed with him.
The movement to save himself, which Vučić ceremoniously launched in Jagodina, is for him a lifeline to get out of this situation and make a move away from SNS, which his voters increasingly recognize as a breeding ground for corruption. Whether it will succeed depends on all the protagonists on the other side of the progressive system.
We should not forget that Vučić still enjoys the trust of by far the largest number of citizens. And that the resignation of Vučević in itself means nothing.