After the session of the National Security Council, Aleksandar Vučić addressed the nation and answered several questions from journalists, in a situation that is really difficult for Serbia. And him. You could see it on his sleepless face.
The structure of the government in Serbia at this media conference was also picturesque: Mandatory Ana Brnabić, President of the Assembly Vladimir Orlić and several ministers in the Technical Government sat somewhere in a corner and listened carefully to the president's words.
From his, as always, convoluted presentation that leaves several options open, it could be concluded that three old painful topics for Serbia have gained a new dynamic.
In the first place there is the question of Kosovo. By appointing special envoys for negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz and President of France Emmanuel Macron, the leaders of the two "most powerful European countries", Vučić emphasized several times, increased the pressure on him, together with the USA, to somehow recognize Serbia's independence. Kosovo. From Vučić's words, it could be concluded that the EU and the USA, in the "conditions of war in Europe", are asking him to recognize Kosovo's independence by mutual agreement to knock the argument out of Putin's hand that Kosovo's independence is a graft, so why then, on the same principle, Crimea or Donetsk they would not be able to declare independence from Ukraine.
Specifically: if Serbia recognized the independence of Kosovo, it would no longer be a precedent because it would be consensual, and since Ukraine will not recognize the independence of Crimea or any other part of its territory, then it would be a precedent, so Russia would not be able to find a foothold anywhere in the interpretation or adaptation of international law.
And since "Europe is at war", Serbia is asked to find a solution as quickly as possible to avoid new conflicts in the Balkans.
Vučić said in that context that Sbia is "collateral damage" of this war, and he is right: if Russia had not attacked Ukraine, the Kosovo saga could have dragged on indefinitely, just like his non-alignment.
American arming of the region
Judging by Vučić's words, for the sake of defense against the Russian threat, the USA approved military aid for all countries in the region, including Kosovo, with the exception of Serbia. That would certainly put Serbia, thus excluded, in an even more unfavorable position. Since Russia has no intention of directly threatening the Balkans militarily, this move by the USA indicates that Serbia is assessed as a threat to regional peace and stability, because through it the Kremlin could try to open a new front, to push Serbia into a kind of "denazification" in neighborhood.
With incendiary, although above all, addressed to the domestic public, repeated statements that "Serbia will not silently observe new pogroms in Kosovo", nor Serbs anywhere, arming from all corners of the world, emphasized balancing between Russia and the West, in "wartime conditions", the government in Belgrade alone provided Western strategists with arguments that they could view Serbia as a potential danger to the unified Western front.
Those arguments also include the carefully nurtured Russo- or Putinophilia in Serbs, and the general anti-Western trend in society.
For Russia or for the West?
Along with some kind of recognition of Kosovo's independence, the pressure has been renewed for Serbia to finally and unequivocally decide in the war between the West and Russia, of course for the West and its European future.
The war, economic, financial, social front will tighten up in the winter. There are no signs of a de-escalation of the conflict. In such conditions, Serbia will have less and less room for maneuver for the policy that earned it the label of "the only European country that did not impose sanctions on Russia."
Europride
Vučić is honest and right, that in all this he only missed the "circus" around Europride, the first in Eastern Europe. But holding Europride is a question of respect for human and minority rights, therefore the functionality of a legal and democratic state, and therefore also a question of Serbia's compatibility with the so-called western values, thus its European determination.
Finally, Vučić specified that all other gatherings within Europride are not disputed, that "those people can dance and sing" wherever they want, except, perhaps, at the Pride Parade scheduled for September 17. The final decision on whether it will be banned or not will be made by the MUP 96 hours before the start of the Parade, thus leaving time for possible legal proceedings.
Vučić emphasized and vividly described that he absolutely supports the rights of "homosexuals", that they exist both in the extended family and in the work environment, but that he is not a supporter of the parade, although he supports the right of the LGBT+ population to parade if they want - if it does not endanger the security of Belgrade and Serbia.
Vučić has already found himself between the proverbial hammer and the anvil, that is, between the West and the Covenanters: if he gives in to the West on the issue of Kosovo, Russia and/or Europride, his popularity in Serbia will decline, and right-wing/patriotic parties will strengthen at the expense of SNS. And if he doesn't give in, it can't be good for him either.
Read daily news, analysis, commentary and interviews at www.vreme.com
