The latest analysis of the Fiscal Council reveals a worrying trend of a strong increase in the estimated values of the largest state investments, writes New Economy. Projects like EXPO, National Stadium and key traffic roads are experiencing price increases that are measured in tens of billions of dinars, while the financial realization of these obligations, due to breaking deadlines and prices, spills over to 2027 and 2028.
One of the most obvious examples of cost growth are the projects related to the international exhibition EXPO 2027. According to official data, the estimated value of the National Football Stadium has increased by 7,5 billion dinars - from the original 67,5 to even 75 billion dinars. An even more drastic jump was recorded in the accompanying line infrastructure (which also includes heat sources), the price of which jumped by an incredible 22 billion dinars, reaching a total of 62,5 billion dinars. The item directly related to the "EXPO Belgrade 2027" project was also corrected upwards by 2,6 billion dinars.
Price increase
The trend of price increases has not bypassed the road corridors either, where the costs for certain sections have increased by up to 90 percent compared to the originally contracted prices.
Only in 2025, the price of the Fruškogorsk Corridor project increased by 40 percent, which increased the total price by almost 50 percent from the moment of contracting. Due to this growth, payments have been moved to 2027.
The road Ruma-Šabac-Loznica recorded a price increase of 15 percent in 2025, but when viewed from the very beginning, the price increase amounts to approximately 90 percent. Although the road is physically almost finished, its financial realization has been postponed until 2028 due to these changes.
For the National Stadium, the final completion of the works, as well as the payment, have been postponed to 2028. The Fiscal Council especially emphasizes that the budget documentation lacks explanations for such price gouging, which seriously impairs transparency and makes it difficult to control the spending of public money.
Public debt and GDP
Although the share of debt in GDP is predicted to decrease slightly from 45 percent to 44,5 percent, the Fiscal Council points to several critical points due to which the medium-term credibility and stability of public finances may be threatened by 2029.
There is a significant risk due to the high concentration of debt towards one creditor (the United Arab Emirates). In just four months of the second half of 2026, the principal amount of two billion dollars for two large loans is due.
These are two budget support loans with a total value of two billion US dollars that we have agreed with the Abu Dhabi Development Fund.
The first loan was originally contracted back in 2014, and then it was rescheduled in 2021 with a new maturity date in August 2026.
The second loan is from 2022, and its repayment is also postponed until the end of 2026. Renewing these loans costs money because you pay them back later than you initially agreed. Due to worsening conditions on the international market, interest rates on the rescheduling of these loans have risen to four percent, which increases the pressure on interest expenses. Because of this, in the second half of 2026, Serbia will face a great pressure on the budget, because in the space of only four months, the principal of a total of two billion dollars due to the same creditor is due for collection.
The Fiscal Council has calculated that this is why the total financing needs are increasing by 30 percent compared to the previous year.
Economists say that this pressure could be alleviated only if a new agreement on the postponement of these obligations was reached in the meantime.
The budget for 2026 is based on projected real GDP growth of three percent, and if this growth is not realized, negative consequences may occur.
If the economic growth is slower, it will directly reduce the tax base, which leads to a lower collection of taxes (especially VAT) than what was planned, which will be a miscarriage of revenue.
The planned reduction of the share of debt to 44,5 percent directly depends on the assumption that the economy grows faster than the debt itself. If GDP slows down, the share of debt in the economy could remain at a higher level or even increase, according to the analysis of the Fiscal Council.
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