Serbia, Russia and America have less than twenty days to agree on the state of affairs in the Serbian Oil Industry. Because February 25th is not only the deadline for the American sanctions against NIS to come into force, but also when a concrete plan should be put in place - how to save Serbia's energy supply and NIS to continue operating normally.
When it comes to sanctions against this predominantly Russian company in Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic spoke in January, he announced that America was asking Russia to completely exit the company's ownership.
Energy analysts they spoke for "Vreme" then Russia could agree to withdraw, but in case it makes a kind of "gentleman's agreement" with Serbia - it would leave the NIS, and then come back again, when the storm calms down and the sanctions are lifted. Meanwhile, the Russians might want to have their own man in the NIS, as they do Dusan Bajatovic in "Srbijagas".
The Russians, it seems, have changed their minds, informed sources of "Vremena" say unofficially, so they do not want to accept the offer to withdraw completely without any guarantees.
They began to tighten, and they put many conditions on the table - only one of them is that Serbia pays the debts that NIS has to the Hungarian MOL and partners in China for transport. That is precisely why the Government of Serbia, i sent a request to America for the postponement of sanctions for 90 days, and this document was also signed by the Government of Hungary, under the explanation that the energy stability of this part of Europe is threatened.
The message, we unofficially learn, is potentially even more serious - 'we will not leave, and you see what you can do with the Americans'. From a relaxed attitude towards the problem, according to the 'we will agree' system, they turned to confrontation.
What if the sanctions catch us off guard
Miodrag Kapor, an energy expert for "Vreme" says that the request to postpone the sanctions is only "an attempt to buy time, because it seems that Russia does not agree to the conditions that the American side is asking for."
"If there are sanctions, and the transfer of ownership does not happen, Serbia can get into a problem on the fuel market, because more than 70 percent is covered by NIS, and even if they allow other fuel suppliers to enter their pumps, no one will dare to take their fuel to a pump that is under sanctions," he says. "That's why there can be problems in the retail stores themselves."
Not only the supply of fuel to the population depends on the sanctions, but also the economy. Thus Petrohemija is directly dependent on the Oil Industry of Serbia, and with that, its entire shipment may fall into the water.
Can America be appeased?
Even if Serbia tries to play on the change of government in America and appease Donald Trump and his new administration to abandon the decision to introduce sanctions or to wait three months, Kapor says that it is very difficult to implement it.
"Any change would require a vote in the U.S. Congress, where Trump's Republicans now have a narrow majority and not all of them vote by ear," he adds.
Ljubodrag Savić, a professor at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade, who deals a lot with the financing of the public sector in the country, tells "Vreme" that it seems that "Russia is not ready to give up NIS, not because of financial loss, but primarily political".
"I said that the Russians could agree to a gentleman's agreement, to leave the NIS, and then come back, but it seems that there is no option that the Americans did not see through and made it impossible," says Savić. "Then Serbia has no choice - the only thing it can do is impose sanctions on Russia, and that's the only thing it can't do."
Catch 22: We have to, but we can't
This catch-22 could lead the country to a hostile takeover of the NIS, he thinks, in order to satisfy the demands of the USA.
"Friendships exist between people, but not between statesmen, and the Russian interest is clear," he adds.
Energy expert Miloš Zdravković says that Russia is not losing a lot of money in NIS, but political influence, who tells "Vreme" that Gazprom is only the third largest energy company in Russia.
"We like to give ourselves importance, but in fact the quantities Russia sends through NIS are minor compared to the millions of barrels of oil it sells to China and India," he says. "NIS is the largest filler of the state budget of Serbia, but it is insignificant to the Russians. Sanctions are thus directed against Serbia, not Gazprom and Russia."
What does Vučić say about NIS, Americans and Russians
President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić he announced that he will soon talk to the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, about sanctions against the NIS. He also said that he does not believe that the US will respond positively to the request to postpone the sanctions for 90 days, which the company NIS sent to the Department of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury.
"We received a response from the American embassy, but we have not yet received from OFAK." We received a clear and unequivocal answer from the American embassy, that what the Russians wrote, which we and everyone else supported, would not work. But we are now waiting to receive an answer from OFAK, to see what we will do next", answered Vučić when asked if the USA will respond positively to the request letter sent by NIS, which was supported by Serbia and Hungary.
When asked when he would talk to Putin, Vučić replied that it would be soon, but that he could not call him until he knew what the Americans would say. He also added that Gazpromneft CEO Aleksandar Djukov sent a letter to Serbia, so Vučić will study it.
"So let me see what to do next and how to respond and what to do." We have to save the country, and I would not like to spoil the good relations with the Russians. I want us to have good relations with the Americans, and then you are in an impossible position," said Vučić.
