The world's stock markets are swinging these days - as Donald Trump moves in his decisions.
After suddenly published a list of customs rates for imports to the United States of America and started a kind of trade war with the whole world - the stock markets came back.
The world's stock markets reacted identically, only in the other direction, when seven days later America's first man decided, again abruptly, to delay the implementation of the tariffs for 90 days.
If stock market traders knew what was going through Trump's head - they could make a lot of money very quickly.
"The changes in the stock market that Trump brought about with his decisions are similar to those that befell the world in major crises - during the corona pandemic or during 2008 and the world economic crisis," stock market expert Nenad Gujaničić explains to "Vreme".
"Even ten percent of the stock market recovered after Trump postponed the tariffs, which would mean in money terms - the one who has the right information made incredible money, it's not millions, but billions. During one trading day, a lot can be made or lost, depending on what you know."
Is Trump breaking the law?
And from the aspect of the influence of politics on the economy, the question is how much Donald Trump behaves in accordance with the legal regulations on the independent market, which are at the highest level in America. Especially considering the American resentment towards the controlled economy that has existed for decades in China or similar regimes.
Because Trump himself, the day before he decided to put a pause on the introduction of tariffs, wrote on his social network Truth Social that "everything will turn out fine." He added: "this is a great time to buy," referring to stock market trading that has plummeted in value since the tariffs were announced. So - whoever listened to Trump and bought shares on the same day, will now be able to sell them for big money.
"In the stock market, you have insiders, directors who can provide you with similar information on how the shares of some products will move. But there are also strict laws by which the state tries to reduce this occurrence. Now we see what happens when one man creates the world stock market, and that man is a politician. It can be dangerous, and the question is whether anyone from Trump's team profited from these changes. I would be very surprised if he didn't," says Gujaničić.
Where is Serbia?
Serbia was very happy when Trump came to the head of America again, and surveys before the election showed that he is a politician who is massively supported. Thus, Serbia found itself among the five countries in Europe that support Trump the most, and some of the arguments were that they would stop the war in Ukraine and settle relations with Russia, and agree on the NIS.
Nevertheless, the Serbian economy, even with a solution for the energy sector, may be hit by a new vortex of bad economic relations between world powers. Because few people in Serbia know that America's biggest enemy is not Russia - but China.
"In the field of economics, the front between America and China is literally the most important, and it will shape the fate of the global economy," explains Gujaničić.
"China is the only country that threatens America economically, so now we see that the other tariffs are only against it."
Serbia, in contrast to the period of the world economic crisis in 2008, is now much more economically open, so it could suffer more, especially due to the large inflow of capital from China, due to the large infrastructure investments that have entered the country from this country in recent years.
"In Serbia, the economy depends on deals and it is very possible that some kind of external crisis will force us to change that way of working," Gujaničić thinks.
Also, the country probably won't feel the direct impact of the customs war with America, but that's why it will indirectly - through Of the European Union, which exports to America, and which is our main partner. The automotive industry will be the most targeted, and as a large number of factories in Serbia assemble parts from car parts - we will really feel those customs duties.
