"If he doesn't find a bank that wants to do business with him, closing the account means that NIS would stop working," economist Goran Radosavljević told Vreme.
Who would have thought that the year 2025 will have the smell of the XNUMXs because of the way things are going petrol bought from smugglers for foreign currency. Of course, it could be poured at the pump now, but who knows how it will be paid for.
It is completely expected that the banks announced that they will close the account Oil Industries of Serbia (NIS), due to sanctions on that company announced by the United States of America (USA), and if that happens, NIS will no longer be able to function, because all payments in Serbia go through banks, says "Vreme" economist Goran Radosavljević.
I hope that a letter will arrive from the USA at the last minute that will postpone the start of the sanctions for 90 days, as requested, and if that does not happen, we are in serious trouble, he adds. February 25 was stated as the deadline for the introduction of American sanctions.
"If he doesn't find a bank that wants to do business with him, closing the account means that NIS would stop working," warns Radosavljević.
He points out that, except in exceptional circumstances, and only in the case of small companies or in the markets, there is no way to pay for goods in cash, there must be a bank account that also serves to pay wages and obligations to suppliers.
"Without a bank account, there is no company. "When you register at the Agency for Business Registers, the first thing is to get a PIB and an identity number, and the next obligation is to open a bank account, and that is the basis for doing business," says Radosavljević.
The following is the immediate maturity of the loan collection
Regarding NIS's announcements that their products can be paid for exclusively in cash and through Dina cards, Radosavljević says that NIS has obviously found a bank that it could work with and opened accounts there, stating that it could only be Poštanska štedionica and Alta banka.
In the meantime, NIS paid the February salary before the deadline, and now it has decided to urgently pay the March salary as well.
Assuming that Master, Visa and Amerikan will most likely join the NIS sanctions, Radosavljević notes that Dina could work because it is only related to payment transactions in Serbia.
"In the case of account closure, the banks that lent to NIS will immediately declare those loans due and demand that they be collected, which will lead to an immediate block, because NIS probably does not have enough free funds in the account to collect those loans, and this further means that NIS will be blocked until it pays those funds." The previous balance sheet says that it is about 500 million euros," says Radosavljević.
He adds that NIS was lent by various banks, mostly OTP, Inteza and AIK banka, and that he doesn't know if all of them will declare the loans overdue, "although it's automatic, when one bank declares overdue, the others do the same, in order to manage to collect something".
"This is where the National Bank of Serbia will have to react and make a decision on the method of collection, because probably not all of them will be able to collect from free funds", warns Radosavljević and emphasizes that "if the banks have decided to comply with the NIS sanctions, even a possible sale will not save them at the moment".
It turned out that Radosavljević was right, because New Economy announced on Friday that all major banks had declared NIS loans due for collection.
Who would buy a company under sanctions?
He indicates that it should be borne in mind that whoever buys NIS is buying a company with sanctions, because sanctions were not imposed on the parent company Gazpromneft, so that NIS is indirectly under sanctions.
"Sanctions were imposed on NIS by name, and in order to remove them, the US Congress must pass a resolution to lift sanctions, which is not a procedure that can be done in one day." A buyer who would appear at this moment, knowing that the banks will block the company next week, would be facing a serious risk, and I am not sure who would want to buy it at this moment," says Radosavljević.
A potential buyer could be a regional company, but also companies from the Middle and Far East, says Radosavljević, but he points out that the key question is whether the majority Russian owner wants to sell his share in NIS at all.
"I don't think Gazpromneft wants to sell its stake in NIS, and I don't see any reason why it would sell." Because the company will fail? Since the beginning of the war, hundreds of billions of dollars have failed, now one company that is going to fail means nothing," says Radosavljević.
A special problem - stockpiling
He warns that in the worst-case scenario, fuel supply in Serbia will be threatened, because according to data for December 2024, the Pancevo refinery supplies 80 percent of all derivatives in Serbia.
"According to currently available information, companies that supply the remaining 20 percent of derivatives could increase their participation in the derivatives market to 35 percent," says Radosavljević.
As an example, he cites the company Mol, which said it can double the quantity, but adds that Mol's participation in the Serbian derivatives market is currently less than five percent.
"The key is how the state will react in case the banks close the NIS accounts." There will be fuel, but citizens will not be able to buy it. Another thing is, as with inflation - expectation. Whoever expects that there will be no fuel makes a reserve. Think of the big transport companies, or Delta agrar waiting for spring work in March - they will start making reserves. As soon as you make reserves, even under normal circumstances you cannot satisfy the market," says Radosavljević.
He concludes that Serbia will be "in serious trouble" if the US does not postpone the sanctions for 90 days, because he does not see what could solve the problem in the remaining short term.
"Banks will not want to risk falling under sanctions, even if they are not foreign, and they are all foreign," concludes Radosavljević.
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