"The key cut on energy issues will be made on January 15."
This date for resolution crisis with NIS Aleksandar Vučić uttered it for the last time on December 28, and he has been repeating it for almost a month. He also mentioned it at the beginning of December, when he talked about three scenarios for NIS, and the last one was that nothing happens until mid-January and that the state has to intervene, as he explained. He repeated it as well Minister of Finance Siniša Mali and that directed a little more sharply towards Moscow.
The President of Serbia especially likes to set some of his own deadlines regarding the Oil Industry of Serbia, although several sources said in the media that Serbia is the least asked about this entire situation. Because the Russians should give their nod to the sale of their company, and the Americans should allow it to be sold to a company that will be acceptable according to their criteria, had they not lifted the sanctions.
A man addicted to deadlines
However, Vučić does not give up on his dates. Day after day, he confessed in the media to the citizens that he is leading the country through never more difficult times and has difficult away games, as he negotiates with the American OFAK, which should allow NIS to continue working without interruption, on the deadlines for issuing licenses. He still marked November 27 as "D-day" for Oil industry of Serbia. Then he "demanded" from OFAK and the US Government to give Serbia an operating license within the next 48 hours. The American Thanksgiving Day has also passed, and the Minister of Energy used it to justify why the Americans did not meet Vučić's deadline.
He then "nicely told" them that Serbia wants to give more to the Russians about fifty days to find a buyer for their majority share in the Serbian Oil Industry, and how difficult a situation Serbia will be in if the Refinery has to shut down operations, and they did not answer him.
While Viktor Orbán received all possible relief for Hungary from Trump, Vučić's regime did nothing about the American sanctions for almost a year, and when it got tough, no one wanted to meet him even an inch.
What if the deal doesn't work out?
That is why the question arises whether Vučić should be trusted even with this 50-day deadline for the Russians, which expires on January 15.
"There is nothing much to say here. NIS must work smoothly, if we don't want to have problems with supplying the market," broker Nenad Gujaničić told Vreme. "Even though we haven't felt a shortage of oil derivatives so far, if nothing really changes about NIS now, in a few months the customers will feel it because the refinery in Pancevo will not start. It is also very important to ensure the predictability of the market, to know when the company will continue to operate normally. If this does not happen, the effect of stockpiling will be created, people will go to get fuel because at some point the state's stock will disappear."
Experts have already explained that it takes about a month to two days for the shut down refinery plants to start working again. Since the plant had a regular overhaul relatively recently, it is estimated that it will take at least 30 days for the refinery to start working again. Therefore, if sanctions are lifted from NIS in mid-January, the refinery will, at best, only start producing energy products in mid- or late February.
Nationalization
Economist Saša Đogović tells Vreme that the only thing Vučić's government can actually do on January 15 is to nationalize NIS.
"If he doesn't get the green light for the sale from the Russians, and Vucic himself said that they don't want to sell the company to Serbia, he will have to nationalize this company. This means a takeover on a similar principle as in some other European countries," says Đogović. "Bulgaria and Romania had a similar situation with Russian firms under sanctions and created a model of nationalization."
Vučić, as a guest on the Pink television program, said that Serbia had enough money and was ready to buy NIS, but that no agreement had been reached, and he did not want to publicly talk about the reasons in order not to damage relations with certain countries. It is assumed that he meant that the Russians did not want to sell their share to Serbia.
Also, Moscow all the time keeps Serbia on a short leash because, instead of the desired two- or three-year contract for gas, they only gave her a three-month secure supply. We expected two or three years of steady inflow, we got it until March 2026. Interestingly, the license that the American OFAK eventually gave to NIS to sell itself expires in that month.
Everything costs money: We can't do it either by road or by the Danube
Vučić said that Serbia has large fuel reserves, but that they are currently being used up and that the next period will be difficult. He warned that without a refinery, Serbia cannot import the required amount of diesel daily, citing problems in transportation, especially in case of low water level or freezing of the Danube, as well as limited capacities of road and rail traffic.
Experts have already explained to "Vreme" that Serbia, like many other European countries, does not have to produce fuel in its refinery, but can buy it from outside. It's just a question of how much it costs and how long it takes us to organize - to buy tankers, barges to transport fuel, to negotiate favorable wholesale arrangements, because the price differences are huge.
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