If the organizers' estimate is correct that EXPO 2027 will attract four million visitors, where should they all be accommodated? How many hotels and other accommodation facilities in Belgrade should be built in three years?
Exhibition EXPO 2027 will attract more than four million visitors, is a projection of the exhibition organizer. However, it is not yet clear how many of those four million will actually be foreign tourists whose motive for coming to Belgrade will be exclusively EXPO, and which the government highlights as the main argument in favor of the profitability of this grandiose project, writes New economy.
As recently as last year, the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, announced that 120 or 130 new hotels would have to be built in Belgrade because of the EXPO. However, he then stated that the EXPO will be visited by 2,6 million tourists, while now the number of visitors is XNUMX million.
For perspective, Belgrade today officially has 2822 accommodation facilities with a total of 30.003 beds, of which 115 are hotels. This means that the number of hotels in the capital would have to be at least doubled in the next two years.
In order to solve this problem, the state decided last year to subsidize the construction of new and reconstruction of existing hotels for the needs of the EXPO.
Several projects have been applied for these incentives so far, the total planned investment value of which is EUR 231 million, according to data received by eKapija from the Development Agency of Serbia.
Of the above, more than 70 percent refers to investments in the construction of the hotel with a planned value of around 200 million euros, while the rest refers to the reconstruction of the hotel in the value of around 31 million euros, according to RAS.
That agency did not answer New Economy's questions about the number of reported projects, that is, hotels that will be built and reconstructed.
Speaking about the accommodation facilities needed for EXPO 2027, the director of the Tourist Organization of Serbia (TOS), Marija Labović, tells Nova Ekonomija that Belgrade and its surroundings, according to the latest data from the Republic Institute of Statistics from 2023, have 115 hotels.
"Apart from Belgrade, there is also accommodation in Novi Sad, Sremska Mitrovica, Inđija, Sremski Karlovci in the immediate vicinity of the EXPO 2027 exhibition. Considering that the construction of new hotels and other accommodation facilities was announced earlier, I believe that by the start of the EXPO, we will have enough capacity to receive the planned number of tourists," she stated in her response to New Economy.
"For classic tourists, the exhibition will not be the first reason to come"
The director of the National Association of Travel Agencies (YUTA), Aleksandar Seničić, says that a large number of guests are certainly expected at the exhibition, but that they are mostly business people who in some way have a need to appear there.
When it comes to "classic" tourists, Seničić points out that he is not one of those who believe that EXPO 2027 will be their first reason for coming to Serbia.
The company EXPO 2027 based the assumption of the arrival of four million visitors on data from previous EXPO events and consultations conducted with the International Bureau of Exhibitions and participating countries and other sources, the New Economy was told earlier.
The New Economy portal requested additional clarification from this company as to what the estimate of four million specifically refers to - is it the number of people who will visit the exhibition or is it the estimated number of tourists on the territory of Serbia (domestic and foreign) during the three-month period exhibitions and whether they have estimates about how many foreign tourists will visit this event, but until the publication of this text, clarification was missing.
Seničić says that a large number of guests is certainly expected, and that the number of four million visitors certainly refers to the exhibition itself and its visitors, and not to tourists, and that the exhibition that will be held in Belgrade is the so-called "small" EXPO that lasts three months, and that there are 2,5 - 3,5 million people.
The company EXPO 2027 expects something a little more than this average, which according to Seničić is completely realistic. "Whether it will be exactly like that, more or less, depends on many factors." We are now in 2024, and the exhibition is in 2027," Senicic said.
Constant growth of tourists
He indicates that the total number of foreign tourists cannot be predicted, because every year we have growth, and it is expected that the trend of increasing the number of foreign guests will continue until 2027.
"From the tourist point of view, until 2026, when reservations and questions on that topic from people from abroad, we will not be able to give a clearer projection," Senicic said.
Speaking about the very interest of tourists in such exhibitions, he states that people come there who in some way have a need to appear at it.
"As for real tourists, I don't have the impression that there will be an increase in interest just because the EXPO is in Belgrade." This did not happen in Dubai or in other places. "Classic tourists, if they happen to be there - maybe they will come," Seničić believes.
"It is a business exhibition, related to the participating countries and their offer. A large number of people are expected to come from all participating countries, including those that are not participating," he said.
“Realistic” expectations
Marija Labović states that the expectations are high, but also justified and realistic, bearing in mind the fact that year after year records are broken when it comes to the number of tourists in Serbia.
"Taking into account the fact that the last specialized exhibition, held in Astana in 2017, was visited by about four million people, I see no reason why we should not even exceed that figure," Labović stated.
She presented information that during 2023, 1.384.616 tourists visited Belgrade and 3.453.132 overnight stays were made.
"Therefore, there are quite realistic projections that during the EXPO this result will be many times better. I will remind you that about 120 countries, international organizations and companies will participate in our exhibition," she said.
She estimated that the EXPO will additionally contribute to show the world all the values we have, which will increase the number of foreign tourists.
"A large number of them will certainly come to Belgrade because of the exhibition itself, which is called "Play for humanity - sport and music for all", and we, as the host country, will do our best to organize this important event at the highest possible level and in the world "Let's send the most beautiful picture of Serbia," she said.
Sell cheap, buy back expensive.
And in the midst of calculations about the number of tourists and catering facilities that will be built, new news broke that the state will pay about 12 million euros for the expropriation of the land for the construction of the EXPO exhibition, that is, half a million euros per hectare. The land that is being bought also includes the former plot of the PKG company, which was sold by the state in 2018 at a price of EUR 4700 for one hectare.
The costs for the expropriation of the land on which the National Football Stadium and facilities for the EXPO Belgrade 2027 international exhibition will be built amount to around 12 million euros, the State Attorney's Office of Serbia told Radio Free Europe (RSE).
The documentation obtained by RSE according to the Law on the Availability of Information shows that the Tax Administration estimated that the value of that land in the municipality of Surčin is 500.000 euros per hectare.
On the outskirts of Belgrade, on a construction site that extends to about 350 hectares, until just three years ago, there were fields, forests and canals categorized as agricultural land.
The state's decision to build the National Stadium and the EXPO fair complex on this area was followed by the adoption of new planning documents, and the former arable land became a construction zone.
Thus, the value of this land has been significantly increased, and therefore the purchase costs for the needs of the implementation of these projects. The largest part of the land was owned by the state, but the planned construction zone also covered a number of plots owned by private individuals and companies.
One of the companies from the UAE
Among the owners of the land being bought in Surcin was the company from the United Arab Emirates "Al Dahra". By the way, that land once belonged to the state company Poljopridredni kombinat Beograd (PKB), which in 2018 was bought by an Arab company through the privatization process, thereby also buying part of the company's property.
Until privatization in 2018, the PKB corporation used about 30.000 hectares of land in several municipalities (Palilula, Zrenjanin and Surčin). 17.000 hectares were sold to the "Al Dahra" company, and for Insider TV, representatives of the government then claimed that the land that the state will need in the future was exempted from privatization.
In 2018, the Arab company bought the land of PKB at a price of 4.700 euros per hectare, but the same land would now be valued at almost 100 times the amount, i.e. half a million euros.
Assessment without going to the field
According to the Law, RSE received a decision from the Tax Administration, in which it was established that undeveloped construction land in the municipality of Surčin is worth 6.174 dinars (50 euros) per square meter, that is, about half a million euros for one hectare. The Tax Administration determined the price without going to the field, based on the prices achieved in 2022 and 2023 in three real estate sales in a similar location.
According to the data of the Republic Geodetic Institute of Serbia, there were about 2023 sales of construction land in the municipality of Surčin in 400. The cheapest price was 18.000 euros, and the most expensive was two million euros per hectare. The average value of agricultural land in the territory of the City of Belgrade was around 9.000 euros per hectare.
For those who don't know what EXPO is
In 2023, the International Bureau for Exhibitions chose Serbia as the host of the specialized EXPO 2027 exhibition. The exhibition will be organized from May 15 to August 15, 2027, with the theme "Game(s) for humanity - sport and music for all".
In addition to specialized EXPO exhibitions, which will be organized in Belgrade, there are also EXPO world exhibitions.
Specialized exhibitions last shorter than World Exhibitions and are organized in the period between the organization of two World Exhibitions. In particular, the next World Exhibition will be organized in Japan (Osaka 2025) in 2025, and the previous one was organized in the United Arab Emirates (Dubai 2020) in 2021.
Specialized exhibitions, like the one that Serbia will organize, are global events that are designed to respond to a specific challenge that humanity is facing, explains the BIE website. They are limited in duration (maximum three months) and space (up to 25 hectares).
Source: New economy/Radio Free Europe
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