"Many midwives - skinny baby."
This saying was already investigated by scientists from the University of Princeton ten years ago. The results are expected. They found that the more people involved in the decision-making process, the greater the chances that the outcome will be bad.
Similarly, at least according to statements to the media, the negotiations regarding the Oil Industry of Serbia could be interpreted similarly. More than five negotiators participate in them, the Russian Gazprom, the majority owner of NIS, Hungarian MOL, who wants to buy it, but, allegedly, the Serbian government is also very important. Domestic businessmen are also involved, such as Ranko Mimović i Bogoljub Karić, and all of that should ultimately be approved by the American OFAK. Most of the citizens of Serbia are not very clear about who has the main speech and whose will be the last.
"Russians and Americans - that's my answer to the question of who are the main actors who will decide the fate of NIS", Gujaničić told "Vreme". "The State of Serbia for this year and something, in a large number of cases and periods, did not even know what was happening."
For the honorary president of the Union of Employers of Serbia, Nebojša Atanacković, the most important actors are the Russians and Hungarians, but for "Vreme" he emphasizes that the last amen is given by the Americans. Serbia is not an important negotiator for him either, and there is no mention of its businessmen.
He will try to conclude.
If they listen to their president, Aleksandar Vučić, the citizens of Serbia would think that he is the one who decides on the negotiations.
"If they agree on the refinery, I will try to conclude the talks with them, and then the Ministry and the Government make the final decision," said Vučić on Thursday, May 14.
Nevertheless, the saga with the sale of NIS, which dates back to January 2025, would have shown the average voter in Serbia a long time ago that Serbia does not ask much, says broker Nenad Gujaničić for "Vreme".
"I rather interpret this latest activation of the Serbian side, about the negotiations that are allegedly being hurriedly conducted and in which they are participating, as media aggression, which should show that the Government of Serbia is suddenly very worried about what will happen to our most important company," Gujaničić told "Vreme".
Hence, he adds, the story about how Serbia is trying to raise its share in the ownership structure of NIS from 29 to 34 percent, so that it would supposedly ask more questions.
"Nowhere in the mutual agreements does it say that a third of the shares owned by Serbia would bring anything, that is nowhere to be seen in the papers," claims Gujaničić. "On the other hand, the Hungarians would welcome it with disbelief, because then they would get a majority stake in the company again, for a little less money. I also include statements about alleged red lines and coordination between MOL and the Government of Serbia in that corpus."
NIS: What is the connection between the closing of the refinery in Pancevo and the obscene offer of Ranko Mimović
Ours is just – territory.
Many aspects of the sale of NIS are important from an economic and closer energy point of view, as well as from an international-political point of view, says Nebojsa Atanacković for "Vreme".
"Serbia is important here because the company is simply located on its territory. However, if Russia and the Hungarians make a deal, we don't have much opportunity to influence it," he thinks. "That's why it's unclear why the state claims to be negotiating with MOL and setting the final conditions, even if they can buy NIS without its consent."
It is possible, he adds, that what the government in Serbia thinks is important to the Hungarians, but he believes that it is more important to them what the Russian part wants and how they will behave in other affairs.
"This is where we enter the realm of politics. The Russians can sell NIS under certain conditions of price and method of payment, but also promises from MOL that they will continue to import Russian oil in the same quantities", he thinks and says that the deal could be quite "very tragic" for Serbia because the contractual relations can be different than the ones we have with Gazprom.
Does Serbia have a trump card for negotiations?
Atanacković says that he expected Hungarians to have the same attitude towards NIS, that it would not matter to them whether they earn through NIS or their own refineries, but that is probably no longer the case.
"There is also the possibility of increasing the mineral rent, the state of Serbia may be able to negotiate there, because we allowed the Russians an absurdly low tax. Perhaps that could be Serbia's trump card. On the other hand, there are 13.500 employees in NIS and the possibility that the Hungarians will close parts of the company they already have in their country," explains Atanacković.
Serbia's only interest, he thinks, should be oil derivatives. The current situation of the oil crisis is not in our favor.
Ficuses in committees
Gujaničić explains that the relationship between Serbia and Russia regarding NIS has never been transparent or market-based. One of the latest examples of this is the historically best financial result of NIS in 2022, after which the company was supposed to distribute a larger dividend to shareholders. NIS did not do that, but with Gazprom's decision, it paid an additional 60 million euros into the Serbian budget and thus resolved the matter. He left the small shareholders at a loss and deprived the citizens.
"There are numerous examples, in the boards of NIS as representatives of Serbia sat ficuses who did not decide anything, and the state as a shareholder was always irrelevant," says the broker. "An active shareholder, even a minority one, never behaves like that. If they were active, they would have reacted to the first indications of problems with ownership in NIS, done anything. Because the first sanctions were placed before Gazpro back in 2015, after the annexation of Crimea."
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