There will be oil during the winter, and after that, who knows

What will happen to oil - it is not known. Shortages are less likely, price increases are almost certain, but one thing is certain - the Serbian economy will experience a decline.

This is what Vasko Kelić, a researcher at the Center for Economic Research of the Institute of Social Sciences, says in an interview for "Vreme".

"Sanctions will almost certainly lead to a decline in the domestic production of the aforementioned oil derivatives, which will certainly have a negative impact on the industrial component of GDP," says Kelić for the new issue of "Vremena", which will hit newsstands on Thursday (October 16).

"In most cases, the supply itself should not be drastically threatened until the end of the year and during the winter. And after that, we will face enormous uncertainty, the outcome of which will depend on what will happen in the meantime," he adds.

Photo: Marija Janković

Long inaction

The matter had a long prelude - years of energy dependence on Russia, and then ten months of delaying sanctions. During that period, criticizes Kelić, the government did virtually nothing.

Now they have to choose between two evils - or that citizens pay for overpriced oil, which is still the most expensive in the region. Or to ease the price pressure by reducing excise taxes, which will empty the state budget.

Kelić does not expect drastic shortages. He says, most likely, the Hungarian MOL will be among the main suppliers. But, without domestic crude oil processing, that "solution" will cost a lot.

Downloading NIS is the only option

In both the long and short term, according to our interlocutor, the nationalization of NIS or the introduction of compulsory administration can hardly be avoided.

"The gas agreement is mentioned as an argument for continuing to adapt to Russian requirements regarding the NIS. As we can see, despite the favorable attitude of the authorities towards the Russian Federation, that agreement is questionable, and announcements from Bulgaria and the EU indicate that for a few years, no inflow of Russian gas may be possible," says Kelić, who is also a councilor of the Green-Left Front in the municipality of Stari Grad.

"For these ten months since the sanctions were initially announced, and especially in the past few years, our government has missed the opportunity to seek an additional long-term gas arrangement with other potential partners, both in Europe and in the world," he concludes.

Read the entire interview in "Vremen" from Thursday, October 16.

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