Serbia and Croatia found themselves on the same page in an attempt to prevent US sanctions on the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS). While Belgrade strives to preserve energy stability, Zagreb advocates for the protection of economic interests and preservation of transit revenues
Belgrade and Zagreb are in a strange coalition against US sanctions on NISSerbia would like to warn energetically collapse, and Croatia to protect business interests and prevent the oil pipeline between Serbia and Hungary, writes FAZ, reports Deutsche Welle.
US sanctions against the Serbian Oil Industry (NIS) have been postponed for a month, President Aleksandar Vučić said on Thursday. This means that the search for a solution is still ongoing, and so far it has been searched in vain.
The prominent German Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) writes in an extensive article about the possible consequences of such sanctions. The text states that NIS is one of the most powerful companies in Serbia, which Gazprom once bought for a reason, in exchange for Moscow's support on the issue of Kosovo.
"NIS is a monopolist in many areas of business. But not all profits go to Moscow. Russia uses it to finance its own propaganda in Serbia or to show itself as a sponsor, for example, of the Red Star football club," journalist Michael Martens writes in that text.
He reminds that the administration of the previous US President Joe Biden requested a complete change of ownership in NIS, but that the question is whether the administration of Donald Trump will follow such a request.
"If the sanctions really come into force, it would hit Serbia hard - and neighboring Croatia, a member of the EU, would feel the consequences," writes the Frankfurt paper.
Because almost all oil imports to Serbia go through the JANAF oil pipeline, from the Croatian Adriatic coast to Serbia. The Croatian state company that controls the gas pipeline announced that, in case of US sanctions, it would stop the flow of oil to Serbia, which would also cost Croatia money from transit. NIS is JANAF's best customer because it buys a third of the oil flowing through Croatia.
"A very serious matter"
"In Serbia, the crisis could be much more serious." Admittedly, the country can import oil by ship across the Danube, but that would be an expensive forced solution. If the sanctions were applied consistently, the Serbian economy would be without a regular supply of oil," writes FAZ.
"The last time the country experienced something like this was during the Balkan wars and sanctions in the 1990s, when smuggled gasoline was sold along the road in plastic bottles," the article adds.
It is recalled that Vučić said that the matter is extremely serious and that in recent months there have been many talks between Belgrade and Moscow - but without results.
In mid-February, the head of diplomacy, Marko Đurić, flew to Moscow. At a press conference there, his Russian colleague Sergey Lavrov criticized "certain forces" for wanting to stifle the Serbian economy.
But, as Frankfurter Allgemeine writes, Lavrov did not say anything about whether the Russians are ready to sell NIS to the Serbian state or to another company. Or they are ready to watch as a severe economic crisis breaks out in the allied Serbia.
"Today, Russia claims that the NIS is worth around 4,4 billion euros," the newspaper writes. "Given the monopoly position, there should be no shortage of interested parties." "The Azerbaijani oil company SOCAR was mentioned in the Serbian media as a possible buyer," the newspaper writes.
"It is politically possible. "Vučić repeatedly expressed his admiration for the clan of the ruler there, Ilham Aliyev," the newspaper writes. But he adds that recently Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković asked Alijev about this in Davos, and Alijeve replied that there was nothing to do with the purchase.
US-Russian agreement
Journalist Mihael Martens estimates that "Belgrade's calculation is that the Serbian problem with sanctions will be solved as part of the big American-Russian agreement".
Until then, Zagreb diplomatically helps Belgrade out of its own interests, intervening with the Americans.
A non-paper, i.e. an informal document, launched by Zagreb outlines that position: The entire business model of JANAF would be threatened in case of sanctions against NIS.
"In this paper, Zagreb does not offer a solution to suppress Russian influence in Serbia without sanctions against the NIS." But the document ends with a serious warning that has gone unnoticed in the EU for the time being: In October 2022, Serbia and Hungary agreed on the construction of an oil pipeline through which the Serbian network on the territory of Hungary should be connected to the Druzhba oil pipeline, which originates from communist times," the paper states.
The Hungarian energy concern MOL receives Russian oil through Druzhba. Prime Minister Viktor Orban wants to include Serbia in this. "If that happens, it would have a huge impact on Russia's power in Serbia," writes FAZ and further quotes from the Croatian document:
"Sanctions that would prevent JANAF from appearing as a viable alternative for supplying Central and Southeastern Europe with non-Russian oil would thus encourage Serbia to (...) establish an oil infrastructure that enables the acceptance of Russian oil."
It is heard from Belgrade that an oil connection from Novi Sad to the vicinity of Szeged should be built by 2027.
At the end of the text, Frankfurter generally quotes an "excellent knowledgeable source from Zagreb":
"Of course, Croatia has a business interest in not building that pipeline. But it should not be only a Croatian concern. If the EU does not find legal or diplomatic options to prevent the construction, then it will be a defeat with great significance for the region. It will be the greatest imaginable gift to Putin."
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