We have to do this ourselves.

In a rather bizarre display, the president of Serbia announced that he would write a book about how he defeated the color revolution. And when it comes to reality, it rarely happens that the government has such support from international actors - Vučić was supported by the United States of America, Russia and China, and the European Union was tellingly silent while citizens in Serbia are fighting for the rule of law and changing the system based on corruption and the complete absence of political responsibility. And while they run tens of kilometers, and students they do not falter in their demands; while people from all sides, all occupations and ages join them, the government writes poems to Western embassies against the youth of their country.

About the good and bad sides of the fact that the citizens of Serbia are alone in their rebellion and without any international support, silence in the European Union, and the influence of Russia and the USA, we talk with Đorđe Trikoš, strategist for political communications.

"WEATHER" What are the good sides of this indigenous revolution?

ĐORDJE TRIKOŠ: The key value of an autochthonous revolution, that is, a revolution that has arisen by itself and is not supported in any way from abroad, is that its legitimacy will be very high. In any other case - if the European Union, the United States or a major country from the West supported these protests - it would be much easier for Aleksandar Vučić to manipulate the public when he says: "It's a colored revolution!"

But he claims it anyway..

Yes, but it is an unconvincing attempt because there are no clear signals of support for students from the West. Moreover, the impression was created that Vučić, and not the students, were supported by all international actors, and nothing worse could have happened to him than that. This has encouraged the people who are protesting to embolden themselves to the end and say: "We have to do this ourselves". For Serbia it was an incentive, for Vučić a communication dead end. If at least one side supported him and the other did not, he could somehow manipulate the public and spin as he usually does, but since it turned out that everyone supported him, his room for maneuver was seriously narrowed.

Do you see any negative side of the absence of international support for the protests??

Given the strength of the protests, the extent of the blockades, I'd say there are little or no downsides. If the rebellion is so strong and principled, if, as I claim, we have an ethical revolution at work — the third Serbian revolution after the national one from the beginning of the 19th century, and the democratic one from the end of the 20th century — the support of the West will certainly be ensured when, as a consequence of that revolution, that moral revival, it leads to the collapse of the regime of the Serbian Progressive Party. If the expected support from the West came at this very moment, the big question is how it would affect the protests. This could serve the progressives to successfully spread the message that the West is overthrowing Vučić, thus motivating the nationalists and producing a counterweight to the changes. Nationalists who are not controlled by Vučić, and there are few of them, hate the West by a hair more than Vučić. The hatred towards the West has grown for their purpose and there is no patriotic essence there. Only frustration with the West remained.

How do you see the European Union's reaction to the protests in Serbia?? Iliti, lack of reaction?

The European Union, so far, has at least acted neutrally. Considering the size of the protests in Serbia, the trampling of people on the street and the serious violation of citizens' security, the Union took too long to make an announcement. They only recently came out with that shy concern, which was also the only voice in support of the right to civil disobedience in Serbia. That voice was not support for the students, but a three-layered message that, if Vučić starts repression, the EU could come to the defense of the Serbian people against the repressive authorities.

There are those voices of doubt that ask - is it possible to fight for the change of this kind of government if we are alone against everyone?

This blockage has all the characteristics of an organic change - a change that is pure, spontaneous and original. Under such circumstances, hardly any outside support is needed to turn the protest into political change. The greatest strength of this protest is the firm demands. The protest is pure and uninstrumentalized. Moreover, even the one who would try to instrumentalize it, does not know how to do it. Therefore, all international factors will wait to see the resolution of the situation and take new positions after it. All actors, including those from the West, which is still the most important for Serbia. Our strategic goal, whether Vučić is in power or someone else, is membership in the EU. Despite the fact that the government systematically implements anti-Western propaganda, Serbia will move in the direction of the West. This is what Serbia wants, this is its living space. Since the change taking place in Serbia is so strong and organic, at some point the West will accept that change as a fact. If we were to translate such behavior of the West into the language of foreign policy doctrine, it means the following in practice: we will not encourage the fall of Vučić, but if it happens, we will accept that fall and support the new authorities.

Do you think that the various business deals that Aleksandar Vučić and SNS leaders in general-and they have with some European leaders, even American ones, affect that silence and/or support him?

They certainly have an influence because they create an incentive for Vučić not to be undermined, that is, they discourage any intervention. Because of these incentives, probably no more serious consideration is given to siding with the Protestants. But one should understand the factual limitation, even for such a Western approach - the governments of Western European countries have no control over the current events in Serbia. In such conditions, it is very risky for them to actively support Vučić and to actively go against him, to enter into any logistical and communication venture in Serbia.

Why would it be so risky??

In Serbia, there is a belief that if the West wants something, the West will get it. However, there are many examples in the world that confirm that the West does not have that kind of power. I don't think that any foreign power can decide who will be in power in Serbia, nor that it has that amount of power to determine how the local political and social processes will unfold. The risk arises from the fact that, technically speaking, they could try to pour their resources into Serbia and encourage one or another kind of change, but that it would come back to them like a boomerang. No matter what they try, there is no guarantee of success, and there are enough historical examples for such a thing. That is why the West acts as an observer here. We are waiting for the Serbian compass to show the direction.

Is that very pragmatic position all these years, and support for the SNS authorities, (could) affects the mood towards EU integration among those people who like it, in terms of value, they support?

In the short term, it may have a negative effect, but in the medium and long term, the way the EU will position itself towards the new authorities will have much greater consequences when the change occurs. The disappointment of that part of the public that values ​​EU integration is not so profound. Serbs are pragmatic. If, when the change occurs, the West accepts the new reality, there will be a re-establishment of pro-Western and pro-EU attitudes in that part of the public. The better question is how the other part of the public, which until now supported EU integration because the government controlled by Vučić also supported it, at least declaratively, will look at EU integration when Vučić falls.

It seems that the foreign media does not write enough about the protests in Serbia. Why?

It is written sporadically, certainly not at the level we would expect, because the protests are not as attractive to the media as those in Georgia or Slovakia. The few texts that make it into the foreign media are due to the fact that a few people in Serbia, who maintain contacts with those media based on professional or academic connections, create an outward impulse to cover the protest in the influential Western media. Why is there no coverage without it? Well, because the Georgian protest is much clearer in geopolitical terms. He is strongly pro-EU, that is his essence. Without any doubts, the Georgian protest is value-wise and practically directed towards Western security and political integration of Georgia. The same could be said for Slovakia, where the rebellion also has a pronounced foreign policy component. This is the difference between what I call the ethical revolution and the geopolitical dynamics in other countries.

Finally, there is another reason for less coverage of our protest in foreign media - nobody really understands what exactly is happening in Serbia. That's it sui generis phenomenon, original, that it is actually very difficult to understand. Western media understand that there is a high level of corruption in Serbia, that the protests are a reaction to the loss of life in Novi Sad, but without a clear geopolitical expression, there is no interest in such a political phenomenon. From the point of view of Western geopolitical interests, which have been overheated lately, the Serbian protest is simply not attractive enough.

And when it comes to Russia's influence?

In my opinion, Russian support for Aleksandar Vučić is anything but genuine. Russia supports him just as much as the word of the Kremlin reaches the wider Serbian public. It is in Russia's interest to send a message to the nationalists in Serbia: we support the Government of Serbia, and everything directed against the Government of Serbia is bullying from the West, i.e. a colored revolution. Putin is doing this to maintain a high level of support for Russia in Serbia, not to save Vučić. He, like the West, does not control Vučić. At the same time, Vučić does not give them what they actually want. In other words, although it all sounds like support for Vučić, it is false and is aimed only at not disintegrating the support they have among the nationalists in Serbia, who, as I said, are mostly controlled by Vučić. The part of the public that he does not control and that does not trust his media, and has a Russophile mood, will support Russia anyway. Even if Russia trampled over Serbia like a doormat.

The elections in Kosovo have also ended. A few days earlier Rick Grenell, then in the function of US President Donald Trump's envoy for special missions, and now Interim Executive Director of the Kennedy Center, he said that the government of Aljbin Kurti is not a reliable partner of the USA. Where did that timing come from??

Grenell declares this at a time when there are no official contacts, negotiations between the delegations of Serbia, Kosovo and the USA, and just before the elections in Kosovo. The timing is therefore clear, and its goal was to influence Kosovo's public opinion and for the Kosovo public to see that the opposition has more sympathy with the US. It may have been successfully done considering the result. America wants to see the back of Kurti, and rightfully so. Grenell's open support for Hashim Thaci is another matter entirely. We could also hear her in a speech at the Presidency of Serbia, when he received the highest national award.

How do you see the further political processes there, that is, the position of the Serbian community in Kosovo?

I hope that the nationalist hysteria in Kosovo will subside. If the opposition forms a government, it will be much more cooperative in its relationship with the West, which would mean less pressure on the Serbs. I am afraid, however, that whatever government is formed tomorrow in Pristina, will continue where Kurti left off, which is to establish control over the north. The best the Serbs can expect is that the pressure on them will be reduced, but I would not say that the presence of Pristina in the north will also be reduced.