After several years of price growth and a market that has long resisted economic shocks, experts announce that 2026 could bring moderate price growth real estate in Serbia.
"I did an analysis, the results of which seem quite surprising to me. The main tendency is that some growth appears. Statistically speaking, at the moment it is a slight growth that appears cumulatively, five to ten percent on an annual level. We do not know for now whether we will 'iron it out' or if it will change, but the most likely scenario is moderate growth with stabilization or a slight growth trend," says Milić Đoković, vice president of the Expert Council of the Real Estate Cluster of Serbia, for Insider.
The largest share in the total value of real estate sold in the third quarter of 2025 is occupied by apartment sale with 1,1 billion euros. EUR 161,6 million was allocated for houses, EUR 99,4 million for construction land, EUR 66 million for business premises, EUR 50,6 million for agricultural land.
Most loans were used for the purchase of apartments, where 34,5 percent of all purchases were made that way, which is an increase compared to 24,5 percent from the same period in 2024.
"Whether there will be loans for young people or not - this has had a lot of impact on the primary market, but also on the secondary and tertiary. We also have the law 'One's own'. We will see how it will turn out on the market at the end of 2026, before that it is difficult to judge," added Djokovic.
In addition to macroeconomic factors, additional pressure on price movements is created by regulatory and administrative challenges. Recently, there has been a decline in the number of building permits issued, which directly affected the reduction in the volume of construction.
Price increase in Belgrade
Back when the construction of the Expo Center was announced, experts predicted an increase in square footage prices and increased demand in the Belgrade suburb Surčin. The assumption was that instead of 1.500, a square will cost 2.000 euros. Since then, the value of a square meter in Surčin has increased by three times, and if it is a new construction, the price goes up to 2.800 euros.
The most expensive apartment sold in the territory of the city municipality of Savski Venac, with a total area of 284 square meters, was for 1,4 million euros, while the most expensive apartment was sold at a price of 6.818 euros in the territory of that city municipality at the location of Belgrade on the water.
The share of those who buy on credit is growing
When it comes to the structure of buyers, the market is still driven by cash buyers and investors, but the share of citizens who buy on credit is increasing.
"Regarding the structure of customers, data has appeared, and it will be particularly clear when those for the fourth quarter come out, that over 40 percent of customers are credit customers. I'm talking specifically about the city of Belgrade. This has never happened before. The tendency is to go for a half-and-half ratio: half credit customers, half others. This shows that money is relatively cheap, although worthless, but cheap. That's the law of large numbers," Djokovic explains.
He adds that such trends are also reflected in the broader economic context.
"You can see for yourself - chocolate in the market now costs 600 dinars, and until recently it cost 400. A thousand euros a year ago and a thousand euros today are not the same. It's just a numbers game," Đoković points out, then adds.
"People are waiting for a fall, and the money is falling apart. If you have nothing else to invest in, if you don't have an investment that brings you five or six percent of your income through rent, what else are you going to do but invest in real estate? We don't trust the stock market, indexes - only in 'bare concrete'. That's why I have my advice: whoever can - should buy now. If you don't have a lot of money, buy a garage and rent it out. If you have more, buy an apartment."
Almost twice as expensive as 2019.
The apartment that you bought in Belgrade in 2019 in an old building for 100.000 euros, today you could sell it for as much as 187.000 euros, according to a calculation made by the Republic Geodetic Institute.
It turned out that the old buildings became especially expensive compared to the new ones. People's mistrust of today's investors, who often build buildings without the necessary building permits or with permits that they pay for, probably contributed to this. "Time" has already written.
The incredible turbulence in the prices of square meters in Serbia was influenced by the arrival of foreigners due to the war in Ukraine and the chaos in Russia, with the forced sending of people to the front. However, the huge increase in housing prices was also due to the specific economic policy that the state is leading, which refers to the increase in the prices of all goods and services, including construction materials.
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