Serbia would even without the inflow of natural gas from Russia could survive the whole winter. During her last visit to Belgrade, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, emphasized exactly that - that the European Union (EU) will help Serbia if it encounters energy problems, energy expert Miodrag Kapor tells "Vreme".
He reminds that EU already helped Serbia in 2009, even though the gas infrastructure at that time was much weaker than today.
"Serbia consumes relatively little natural gas in comparison to the amounts consumed by the EU, and the natural gas market." gas is much more flexible than it was 16 years ago, precisely because of liquefied gas and because of the newly built terminals in Europe, so the distribution of additional quantities of gas is possible without problems," says Kapor.
Bulgarian script
He states that Serbia also has a gas interconnector with a capacity of 1,4 billion cubic meters, while Serbia consumes around 2,7 billion cubic meters, but also reminds that there are gas storage facilities in Banatski Dvor and in Hungary.
"Additional imports will certainly be necessary, because we do not use those 1,4 billion cubic meters in full capacity. In any case, the price of the gas we would import if the flow of natural gas from Russia stopped would be higher. This happened to Bulgaria when it cut off the flow of natural gas from Russia at the beginning of the aggression against Ukraine. "Bulgaria quickly found a replacement, at a higher price, but in the meantime prices have stabilized, so Bulgaria without the inflow of Russian natural gas pays a lower price for both industry and households," says Kapor.
He points out that for several reasons, the EU is ready to help Serbia in its move towards Russia.
"However, even if Serbia moves towards expropriation or nationalization - which is more or less the same word - Oil industry of Serbia, I doubt that Russia will cut off the flow of gas to Serbia. The reason is that Serbia is a big island of influence against Euro-Atlantic integration, just like Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia. Through Serbia, Russia has developed a network of its media, public and non-public figures whose goal is to slow down European integration, and in the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, NATO integration," explains Kapor.
Russia has no better collaborators than Vučić
Therefore, he points out, by antagonizing Serbia, Russia would reduce its influence in the region.
"It is possible, as it happens in war, that Russia makes some irrational move, but for now I do not see that it is in a situation where it is making desperate moves. That is why Moscow will try to behave rationally and maintain its network of collaborators in Serbia. I do not believe that Russia will start an open conflict with Aleksandar Vučić, because in the event that they cut off gas supplies, they would be accused of it Government of Serbia and executive power, and they don't have better collaborators than them in Serbia, even though a good part of the opposition is Russified," says Kapor.
As a possible scenario, if Serbia initiates the expropriation of NIS, Kapor states that Russia could increase the price of the gas it exports to Serbia, which in that case would be "slightly lower than the market price".
He assesses that the Russian side concluded that the political damage in the case of Serbia would be much greater than the economic damage.
"This is now really a matter of politics. If it were not so, Russia would have sold NIS on the first day when sanctions were announced against that company, because NIS had the highest value then, and since then the value of NIS shares has only been decreasing. Another thing is that Serbia now, due to its subordination to Russia, wants to overpay for the Russian share in NIS," concludes Kapor.
Bajatović: There will be no problem with gas
Director of Srbijagas Dusan Bajatovic he said on Thursday that Serbia will not face a gas shortage, "because we can buy from several countries", and he also announced that an agreement on a gas arrangement with Russia is expected next week.
He assessed that this arrangement will be "good in terms of price and flexibility", and stated that Serbia has gas reserves at "the level of 600 million cubic meters, and we need 800 million cubic meters for the first three months, maximum".
"Whatever math you do, even financial, there will be no problem with gas," Bajatović said.
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